Abstract A key issue in the analysis of traffic accidents is to quantify the effectiveness of a given evasive action taken by a driver to avoid crashing. Since 1977, the widely accepted definition for this effectiveness measure, which is called traffic conflict, has been “the risk of a collision if the driver movement remains unchanged.” Although the definition is expressed counterfactually, the full power of counterfactual analysis was not utilized. In this paper, we propose a counterfactual measure of traffic conflict called Counterfactual Based Conflict (CBC). The CBC is interpreted as the probability that a driver avoided a crash actually by taking an evasive action in the counterfactual situation in which the crash would have occurred if he/she had not taken an evasive action and the crash would not have occurred if he/she had taken an evasive action. The CBC captures realistic aspects of the traffic situation, and lends itself to modern causal analysis. In addition, we provide some of identification conditions for the CBC. Furthermore, we formulate bounds on the CBC when the proposed identification conditions are violated. Finally, through an application of the CBC to the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study, we discuss the usefulness and limitations of the proposed measure.

中文翻译：

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基于潜在结果模型的新交通冲突度量

摘要 交通事故分析中的一个关键问题是量化驾驶员为避免碰撞而采取的给定规避行为的有效性。自 1977 年以来，这种被称为交通冲突的有效性衡量标准被广泛接受的定义一直是“如果驾驶员运动保持不变，则发生碰撞的风险”。尽管该定义是反事实表达的，但并未充分利用反事实分析的力量。在本文中，我们提出了一种交通冲突的反事实措施，称为反事实冲突（CBC）。CBC 被解释为驾驶员在反事实情况下通过采取规避行动实际避免碰撞的概率，在这种情况下，如果他/她没有采取规避行动就会发生碰撞，如果他/她/她/她就不会发生碰撞。她采取了回避行动。CBC 捕捉交通状况的现实方面，并适用于现代因果分析。此外，我们还为 CBC 提供了一些识别条件。此外，当提出的识别条件被违反时，我们制定了 CBC 的界限。最后，通过将 CBC 应用于 100 辆汽车自然驾驶研究，我们讨论了所提议措施的有用性和局限性。我们为 CBC 提供了一些识别条件。此外，当提出的识别条件被违反时，我们制定了 CBC 的界限。最后，通过将 CBC 应用于 100 辆汽车自然驾驶研究，我们讨论了所提议措施的有用性和局限性。我们为 CBC 提供了一些识别条件。此外，当提出的识别条件被违反时，我们制定了 CBC 的界限。最后，通过将 CBC 应用于 100 辆汽车自然驾驶研究，我们讨论了所提议措施的有用性和局限性。