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The Sea: The Science of Ocean Prediction
Journal of Marine Research ( IF 1.107 ) Pub Date : 2017-05-01 , DOI: 10.1357/002224017821836833
Nadia Pinardi , Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux , Kenneth H. Brink , Ruth H. Preller

At the beginning of the 20th century Vilhelm Bjerknes defined the “ultimate problem of meteorology and hydrography” as the discovery of “the laws according to which an atmospheric or hydrospheric state develops out of the preceding one” and the “precalculation of future states” from gridded analyzed observations—that is, forecasting. The development of the electronic computer and the vision of several meteorologists allowed the transformation of meteorology into a sophisticated scientific discipline based on physics and mathematics. The first successful meteorological forecast was carried out in the 1950s. Meteorological forecasting became an operational activity at the end of the 1960s. The contributions to society of such operations have been tremendous. Ocean forecasting began in the 1980s with a joint venture between Harvard University and the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, that completed the first successful forecast of ocean mesoscales in a limited area of the ocean. Since then, computational ocean modeling and prediction have led to major discoveries across multiple time and space scales, from ocean turbulence to climate. In the first decades of the 21st century, ocean forecasting has become an operational activity. The rapidly increasing interconnectivity between humans and the Earth system suggests that ocean prediction will become ever more vital to society in the years to come. Ocean prediction is now part of the wider human endeavor to understand, monitor, and forecast whole-earth physical and biogeochemical dynamics and cycles. The science of ocean prediction is the systematic development of fundamental knowledge about ocean dynamics in the form of testable ocean models and estimation systems that relate to forecasting the ocean’s evolution. It includes governing laws, model equations, parameterizations, numerical implementation, data-driven computational integration, and evaluation of models and systems outputs against ocean observations. Central to the science is the acquisition of relevant observational data sets and the development of models and numerical techniques, together with data assimilation schemes that quantitatively meld all information sources in accord with the uncertainties of the observations and models. It is the sustained combination

中文翻译:

海洋:海洋预测科学

20 世纪初,Vilhelm Bjerknes 将“气象学和水文学的终极问题”定义为发现“大气或水圈状态从前一个状态发展的规律”和“对未来状态的预计算”。网格化分析观察——即预测。电子计算机的发展和几位气象学家的远见使气象学转变为一门以物理和数学为基础的复杂科学学科。第一次成功的气象预报是在 1950 年代进行的。气象预报在 1960 年代末成为一项业务活动。这些行动对社会的贡献是巨大的。海洋预测始于 1980 年代,由哈佛大学和加利福尼亚州蒙特雷海军研究生院的合资企业开始,该企业在有限的海洋区域内首次成功地完成了海洋中尺度预测。从那时起,计算海洋建模和预测导致了从海洋湍流到气候的多个时间和空间尺度的重大发现。在 21 世纪的头几十年,海洋预报已成为一项业务活动。人类与地球系统之间迅速增加的互连性表明,未来几年海洋预测对社会将变得越来越重要。海洋预测现在是人类理解、监测和预测全地球物理和生物地球化学动力学和循环的更广泛努力的一部分。海洋预测科学是以可测试的海洋模型和与预测海洋演变相关的估计系统的形式,系统地发展有关海洋动力学的基础知识。它包括管理法则、模型方程、参数化、数值实现、数据驱动的计算集成以及根据海洋观测评估模型和系统输出。该科学的核心是获取相关观测数据集以及开发模型和数值技术,以及根据观测和模型的不确定性定量融合所有信息源的数据同化方案。这是持续的组合 数值实现、数据驱动的计算集成,以及根据海洋观测评估模型和系统输出。该科学的核心是获取相关观测数据集以及开发模型和数值技术,以及根据观测和模型的不确定性定量融合所有信息源的数据同化方案。这是持续的组合 数值实现、数据驱动的计算集成,以及根据海洋观测评估模型和系统输出。该科学的核心是获取相关观测数据集以及开发模型和数值技术,以及根据观测和模型的不确定性定量融合所有信息源的数据同化方案。这是持续的组合 以及根据观测和模型的不确定性定量融合所有信息源的数据同化方案。这是持续的组合 以及根据观测和模型的不确定性定量融合所有信息源的数据同化方案。这是持续的组合
更新日期:2017-05-01
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