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Flat tax? Maybe not a bad idea after all
Research in Economics Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2020.11.002
Marco Castelluccio

Abstract This work studies the actual degree of progressivity in the Italian tax and transfer system and examines possible reforms towards the optimum. It analyzes the distribution of personal income and effective tax rates across the Italian population, computing income and tax liabilities from survey data, and studies the optimal level of progressivity. To this end, it uses a model developed in Heathcote et al. (2017) with heterogeneous agents where skill investment and labor supply are endogenous and the government provides a public good under a balanced budget. All the main tradeoffs that shape optimal progressivity appear: the presence of inequality in initial conditions and imperfect private insurance push for positive progressivity, whereas labor supply and skill investment call for regressivity. The model suggests a drastic reduction in progressivity under both the baseline and the alternative specifications. In particular, it calls for substantial reductions in marginal tax rates above approximately 0.25 times the mean income along with increased tax rates at the lower end of the income distribution. These reforms may be approximated by a flat tax at 29% under the baseline and at 32.5% under the alternative specification, holding the required positive level of progressivity constant.

中文翻译:

单一税?毕竟也许不是一个坏主意

摘要 这项工作研究了意大利税收和转移制度的实际累进程度,并研究了可能的改革方案。它分析了意大利人口的个人收入分布和有效税率,根据调查数据计算收入和纳税义务,并研究累进的最佳水平。为此,它使用了 Heathcote 等人开发的模型。(2017) 具有异质代理,其中技能投资和劳动力供应是内生的,政府在平衡预算下提供公共产品。塑造最优累进性的所有主要权衡都出现了:初始条件中的不平等和不完善的私人保险推动了积极的累进性,而劳动力供应和技能投资则要求回归。该模型表明在基线和替代规范下的渐进性急剧下降。特别是,它要求大幅降低高于平均收入约 0.25 倍的边际税率,同时提高收入分配下端的税率。这些改革可以近似为基准下 29% 的统一税和替代规范下的 32.5%,保持所需的积极累进水平不变。
更新日期:2020-11-01
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