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Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions [Medical Sciences]
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ( IF 9.412 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-22 , DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2019284118
Thomas P. Smith, Seth Flaxman, Amanda S. Gallinat, Sylvia P. Kinosian, Michael Stemkovski, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Oliver J. Watson, Charles Whittaker, Lorenzo Cattarino, Ilaria Dorigatti, Michael Tristem, William D. Pearse

As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses to changing environment has been shown to affect the transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, the impact of the environment on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal variation remains a source of uncertainty in forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we address this issue by assessing the association of temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density with estimates of transmission rate (R). Using data from the United States, we explore correlates of transmission across US states using comparative regression and integrative epidemiological modeling. We find that policy intervention (“lockdown”) and reductions in individuals’ mobility are the major predictors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, but, in their absence, lower temperatures and higher population densities are correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our results show that summer weather cannot be considered a substitute for mitigation policies, but that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to an increase in transmission intensity in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes. We outline how this information may improve the forecasting of COVID-19, reveal its future seasonal dynamics, and inform intervention policies.



中文翻译:

在没有非药物干预的情况下,温度和人口密度影响 SARS-CoV-2 的传播 [医学科学]

随着 COVID-19 继续在世界范围内传播,了解影响其传播的因素变得越来越重要。由对不断变化的环境的反应驱动的季节性变化已被证明会影响几种冠状病毒的传播强度。然而,环境对严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)的影响在很大程度上仍然未知,因此季节性变化仍然是 SARS-CoV-2 传播预测的不确定性来源。在这里,我们通过评估温度、湿度、紫外线辐射和人口密度与传播率估计值 ( R)。使用来自美国的数据,我们使用比较回归和综合流行病学模型探索美国各州传播的相关性。我们发现政策干预(“封锁”)和个人流动性的减少是 SARS-CoV-2 传播率的主要预测因素,但是,在没有这些因素的情况下,较低的温度和较高的人口密度与 SARS-CoV-2 的增加相关传播。我们的结果表明,夏季天气不能被视为缓解政策的替代品,但在缺乏政策干预或行为改变的情况下,秋季和冬季较低的气温可能会导致传播强度增加。我们概述了这些信息如何改进 COVID-19 的预测,揭示其未来的季节性动态,并为干预政策提供信息。

更新日期:2021-06-09
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