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Tracing international migration in projections of income and inequality across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03133-w
Hélène Benveniste , Jesús Crespo Cuaresma , Matthew Gidden , Raya Muttarak

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent five narratives of future development used for climate change research. They include quantified projections of socioeconomic variables such as population, income levels, inequalities, and emissions over the twenty-first century. The SSP’s population projections embody explicit, pathway-specific international migration assumptions, which are only implicit in the projections of other variables. In this contribution, we explicitly quantify the effects of international migration on income levels and income inequality across and within countries by comparing the original SSP projections to scenarios of zero migration. Income projections without migration are obtained by removing two effects of migration on income dynamics: changes in population size and remittances sent to origin countries. We base our remittance estimates on migrant stocks derived from bilateral migration flow estimates obtained from a gravity model. We find that, on average, migration tends to make the world richer in all SSP narratives. The nature of migration and remittance corridors is shaped by the specific scenario of future development considered. Depending on the particular SSP narrative and world region considered, the effects of migration on income can be substantial, ranging from −5 to +21% at the continental level. We show that migration tends to decrease income inequality across countries and within country in most destination countries but does not affect within-country inequality in origin countries. This new set of projections is consistent with the interdisciplinary framework of the SSPs, which makes it particularly useful for assessing global climate and sustainable development policy options.



中文翻译:

在共享社会经济途径的收入和不平等预测中追踪国际移民

共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 代表了用于气候变化研究的五种未来发展叙事。它们包括对 21 世纪人口、收入水平、不平等和排放等社会经济变量的量化预测。SSP 的人口预测体现了明确的、特定于路径的国际移民假设,这些假设仅隐含在其他变量的预测中。在这篇文章中,我们通过将原始 SSP 预测与零移民情景进行比较,明确量化了国际移民对国家之间和国家内部收入水平和收入不平等的影响。通过消除移民对收入动态的两个影响,获得不带移民的收入预测:人口规模的变化和汇款到来源国的汇款。我们的汇款估算基于从引力模型获得的双边移民流量估算得出的移民存量。我们发现,平均而言,在所有 SSP 叙述中,移民往往会使世界变得更加富裕。移民和汇款走廊的性质取决于所考虑的未来发展的具体情况。根据所考虑的特定 SSP 叙述和世界区域,移民对收入的影响可能很大,从大陆层面的 -5% 到 +21%。我们表明,在大多数目的地国,移民往往会减少国家间和国内的收入不平等,但不会影响原籍国的国内不平等。这组新的预测与 SSP 的跨学科框架一致,

更新日期:2021-06-09
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