The commonsense view is that a lucid dream starts when the dreamer realizes that they are currently dreaming. The notion of realization, however, has been accepted at face value, with little consideration of whether the dreamer realizes that they are dreaming in the sense of actual reasoning, or if it is a mere epiphenomenon of lucid dream initiation. This article offers a solution to this problem by, first, arguing that the transition to lucidity can occur as a result of successful reasoning, and second, building a model of this reasoning in terms of probabilistic reasoning. The established Bayesian model explains realization in lucid dreams taking under consideration two factors: the beliefs that the dreamer holds on what is generally probable and improbable, and the dreamer’s admissibility of being in a dream. Defended against important objections, the model offers an explanation of lucid dream initiation, relevant for future research on dreaming.

常识性的观点是，当做梦者意识到他们目前正在做梦时，清醒梦就开始了。然而，实现的概念从表面上被接受，很少考虑做梦者是在实际推理的意义上意识到他们在做梦，还是仅仅是清醒梦开始的附带现象。本文提供了解决此问题的方法，首先，论证成功推理可以导致向清醒的转变，其次，根据概率推理建立这种推理的模型。已建立的贝叶斯模型在考虑两个因素的情况下解释了清醒梦中的实现：做梦者持有的一般可能和不可能的信念，以及做梦者在梦中的可接受性。