Winter storm Uri brought severe cold to the southern United States in February 2021, causing a cascading failure of interdependent systems in Texas where infrastructure was not adequately prepared for such cold. In particular, the failure of interconnected energy systems restricted electricity supply just as demand for heating spiked, leaving millions of Texans without heat or electricity, many for several days. This motivates the question: did historical storms suggest that such temperatures were known to occur, and if so with what frequency? We compute a temperature-based proxy for heating demand and use this metric to answer the question ‘what would the aggregate demand for heating have been had historic cold snaps occurred with today’s population?’. We find that local temperatures and the inferred demand for heating per capita across the region served by the Texas Interconnection were more severe during a storm in December 1989 than during February 2021, and that cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were nearly as severe. Given anticipated population growth, future storms may lead to even greater infrastructure failures if adaptive investments are not made. Further, electricity system managers should prepare for trends in electrification of heating to drive peak annual loads on the Texas Interconnection during severe winter storms.

2021 年 2 月，冬季风暴乌里给美国南部带来了严寒，导致德克萨斯州相互依赖的系统发生级联故障，那里的基础设施没有为这种寒冷做好充分准备。特别是，当供暖需求激增时，互连能源系统的故障限制了电力供应，导致数百万德州人断电断电，许多人持续数天。这引发了一个问题：历史风暴是否表明已知会发生这样的温度，如果是这样，频率是多少？我们计算了一个基于温度的供暖需求代理，并使用该指标来回答“如果今天的人口发生历史性寒流，供暖的总需求会是多少？”。我们发现，与 2021 年 2 月相比，1989 年 12 月的风暴期间，德克萨斯州互联所服务的整个地区的当地气温和推断的人均供暖需求更为严重，而 1951 年和 1983 年的寒流几乎同样严重。鉴于预期的人口增长，如果不进行适应性投资，未来的风暴可能会导致更大的基础设施故障。此外，电力系统管理人员应为供暖电气化趋势做好准备，以在严重的冬季风暴期间推动德克萨斯互连的年度峰值负荷。如果不进行适应性投资，未来的风暴可能会导致更大的基础设施故障。此外，电力系统管理人员应为供暖电气化趋势做好准备，以在严重的冬季风暴期间推动德克萨斯互连的年度峰值负荷。如果不进行适应性投资，未来的风暴可能会导致更大的基础设施故障。此外，电力系统管理人员应为供暖电气化趋势做好准备，以在严重的冬季风暴期间推动德克萨斯互连的年度峰值负荷。