A growing body of evidence shows that more intensive dairy systems can be good for both nature and people. Little research considers whether such systems correspond with local priorities and preferences. Using a mixed methods approach, this study examined the effects of three intensification scenarios on milk yield and emission intensities in Kenya and Tanzania. Scenarios included (a) an incremental change to feed management; (b) adaptive change by replacing poor quality grass with nutrient-rich fodder crops; and (c) multiple change involving concurrent improvements to breeds, feeds and concentrate supplementation. These scenarios were co-constructed with diverse stakeholder groups to ensure these resonate with local preferences and priorities. Modelling these scenarios showed that milk yield could increase by 2%–15% with incremental changes to over 200% with multiple changes. Greenhouse gas emission intensities are lowest under the multiple change scenario, reducing by an estimated 44%. While raising yields, incremental change conversely raises emission intensities by 9%. Our results suggest that while future interventions that account for local priorities and preferences can enhance productivity and increase the uptake of practices, far-reaching shifts in practices are needed to reduce the climatic footprint of the dairy sector. Since top-down interventions does not align with local priorities and preferences in many situations, future low-emission development initiatives should place more emphasis on geographic and stakeholder heterogeneity when designing targeting and implementation strategies. This suggests that in low-income countries, bottom-up approaches may be more likely to improve dairy productivity and align with mitigation targets than one-size-fits-all approaches.

越来越多的证据表明，更集约化的乳制品系统对自然和人类都有好处。很少有研究考虑此类系统是否符合当地的优先事项和偏好。本研究使用混合方法研究了三种集约化情景对肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚牛奶产量和排放强度的影响。情景包括 (a) 饲料管理的增量变化；(b) 通过用营养丰富的饲料作物替代劣质草来进行适应性改变；(c) 涉及同时改进品种、饲料和浓缩添加剂的多重变化。这些情景是与不同的利益相关者团体共同构建的，以确保这些情景与当地的偏好和优先事项产生共鸣。对这些场景进行建模表明，随着多次变化的增量变化，产奶量可以增加 2%–15%，超过 200%。在多重变化情景下，温室气体排放强度最低，估计降低了 44%。在提高产量的同时，增量变化反而将排放强度提高了 9%。我们的结果表明，虽然考虑到当地优先事项和偏好的未来干预措施可以提高生产力并增加实践的采用，但需要对实践进行深远的转变，以减少乳制品行业的气候足迹。由于自上而下的干预在许多情况下与当地的优先事项和偏好不一致，未来的低排放发展举措在设计目标和实施战略时应更加重视地域和利益相关者的异质性。这表明，在低收入国家，自下而上的方法可能比一刀切的方法更有可能提高乳制品生产力并与缓解目标保持一致。