Fire is one of the most notorious hazards in Australia, with important economic impacts and damage to ecosystems. There is a concern of worsening fire conditions under climate variability, but there is little understanding of the variability in fire occurrence related to climate patterns. We present a statistical decomposition for spatio-temporal analysis of changes in fire occurrence in Australia and its association with climate factors. We found evidence of variability in the trend results for fire occurrence, and also some evidence that this variation is related to climate patterns. Our approach has applicability to other climate-related issues, providing a useful tool to identify possible changes in the intensity of occurrence over time, capturing long-term changes, and also seasonal and cyclical effects.

火灾是澳大利亚最臭名昭著的灾害之一，具有重要的经济影响和对生态系统的破坏。人们担心气候变化会导致火灾状况恶化，但对与气候模式相关的火灾发生的变化知之甚少。我们提出了澳大利亚火灾发生变化及其与气候因素关联的时空分析的统计分解。我们发现了火灾发生趋势结果变化的证据，还有一些证据表明这种变化与气候模式有关。我们的方法适用于其他与气候相关的问题，提供了一种有用的工具来确定发生强度随时间可能发生的变化，捕捉长期变化以及季节性和周期性影响。