What is the role of housing price risk in explaining the timing and the extent to which development sprawls at the urban fringe? Price risks create a real option, which incentivizes developers to delay development, thereby slowing down urban sprawl. We interpret satellite imageries of Toronto in 1986–2016 and match the changes in land-use/cover with residents' socioe-conomic status as well as price and risk data. We find that higher-risk areas experienced 3–5 percentage points slower growth in urban coverage in 1986–2016; if policy is to stabilize price risk, urban coverage could have increased by 7.02–9.79%.

中文翻译：

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实物期权、房价风险和城市扩张：1986-2016 年使用遥感数据对多伦多人口普查大都市区进行的案例研究

房价风险在解释城市边缘发展的时间和程度方面的作用是什么？价格风险创造了一种现实选择，这会激励开发商推迟开发，从而减缓城市扩张。我们解读了 1986 年至 2016 年多伦多的卫星图像，并将土地利用/覆盖的变化与居民的社会经济状况以及价格和风险数据相匹配。我们发现，1986-2016 年，高风险地区的城市覆盖率增长放缓了 3-5 个百分点；如果政策是稳定价格风险，城市覆盖率可能会增加 7.02-9.79%。