We show that long-term and comparative studies are imperative if we are to identify the interlinkage between land use and climate and understand how vulnerabilities build over time and ultimately decide the societal outcomes of climate change. Using a long-term perspective, we study changes in both the extent and intensity of land use in NE Peloponnese, Greece, across more than two thousand years, from the end of the Middle Bronze Age to Roman times (~1800 BCE–330 CE). When set against a backdrop of paleoclimate information from the Peloponnese, the correspondence between changes in land use extent and climate is significant. Sequences of booms and busts in ancient societies have previously been connected to cycles of agricultural intensification and the balance between population and food supply. Our results suggest that climate can amplify such cycles, but also – importantly – that societies create their own futures in the way that they are able to balance agricultural strategies relative to climate and climate change. Climate conditions may facilitate additional expansion during boom periods, supported by socio-political control functions, but also introduce significant impediments to previously successful strategies and ultimately lead to a crisis through an overexploitation of existing resources.

我们表明，如果我们要确定土地利用与气候之间的相互联系并了解脆弱性如何随着时间的推移而建立并最终决定气候变化的社会结果，那么长期和比较研究是必不可少的。从长远的角度来看，我们研究了希腊伯罗奔尼撒半岛东北部土地利用范围和强度的变化，从青铜时代中期末到罗马时代（约公元前 1800 年至公元 330 年）两千多年）。当以来自伯罗奔尼撒半岛的古气候信息为背景时，土地利用范围的变化与气候之间的对应关系是显着的。古代社会的繁荣和萧条序列以前与农业集约化周期以及人口与粮食供应之间的平衡有关。我们的研究结果表明，气候可以放大这种循环，而且——重要的是——社会以能够平衡与气候和气候变化相关的农业战略的方式创造自己的未来。在社会政治控制功能的支持下，气候条件可能会促进繁荣时期的进一步扩张，但也会对先前成功的战略造成重大障碍，并最终通过对现有资源的过度开发而导致危机。