Evsey Domar investigated in the 1940s the implementation of growth stabilization policy under the assumption that policy makers and businessmen alike believed his theoretical growth model. Economic policy was supposed to work merely through the impact of its announcement on expectations. He claimed that confident expectations, generated by government’s assurance of future growth through fiscal policy, would induce private investment decisions in a scale that would bring about the required growth rate and by that justify the expectations, without putting the guarantee to test. Domar’s policy framework contrasts with the policy-ineffectiveness proposition of New Classical macroeconomics advanced in the 1970s. Domar’s stabilization plan is discussed in detail in the context of his growth model, together with similar ideas put forward by Roy Harrod, as the latter modified aspects of his original growth model, and critical reactions by Alvin Hansen.

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Domar、预期和增长稳定

Evsey Domar 在 1940 年代调查了增长稳定政策的实施，假设政策制定者和商人都相信他的理论增长模型。经济政策本应仅通过其宣布对预期的影响来发挥作用。他声称，政府通过财政政策对未来增长的保证所产生的自信预期将引发私人投资决策，其规模将带来所需的增长率，并以此证明预期的合理性，而无需对保证进行检验。Domar 的政策框架与 1970 年代提出的新古典宏观经济学的政策无效命题形成鲜明对比。多马尔的稳定计划在他的增长模式的背景下进行了详细讨论，并结合罗伊哈罗德提出的类似想法，