Human error probability (HEP) evaluation and prediction is one of the most significant tasks to enhance human reliability in marine industry. Among various kinds of HEP evaluation techniques, the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) technique is regarded as an effective and empirical tool that has been widely adopted in various fields. However, current HEART techniques are insufficient to address HEP evaluation problem in which the self-assurance of expert's judgment and inter-dependencies between Error-producing conditions (EPCs) are considered. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a hybrid HEART framework (H-HEART-F) to address this problem by integrating Z-numbers and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. First, the Z-numbers are introduced to model the uncertainty and self-assurance of evaluation information from various experts. Then, the Z-number power weighted average (Z-PWA) operator is proposed to aggregate the individual evaluation information into a group direct influenced matrix. Next, an extended DEMATEL method based on possibility degree measure is constructed to determine the proportion of effect of each EPC by considering the self-assurance of expert's judgment and inter-dependencies between EPCs. Finally, the HEP estimation for the cargo loading operation in oil or chemical tanker ship is presented to demonstrate the availability and feasibility of the H-HEART-F. After that, the sensitivity analysis and comparison study are conducted to further illustrate the reasonableness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

人为错误概率 (HEP) 评估和预测是提高海洋工业人员可靠性的最重要任务之一。在各种 HEP 评估技术中，人为错误评估和减少技术 (HEART) 技术被认为是一种有效的实证工具，已被各个领域广泛采用。然而，当前的 HEART 技术不足以解决 HEP 评估问题，其中考虑了专家判断的自我保证和错误产生条件 (EPC) 之间的相互依赖性。因此，本文的目的是通过整合 Z 数和决策试验与评估实验室 (DEMATEL) 方法，开发一种混合 HEART 框架 (H-HEART-F) 来解决这个问题。第一的，引入 Z 数来模拟来自不同专家的评估信息的不确定性和自我保证。然后，提出了 Z 数幂加权平均 (Z-PWA) 算子将个体评价信息聚合成一个群体直接影响矩阵。接下来，通过考虑专家判断的自我保证和EPC之间的相互依赖性，构建基于可能性度测度的扩展DEMATEL方法来确定每个EPC的效果比例。最后，介绍了油轮或化学品油轮货物装载作业的 HEP 估算，以证明 H-HEART-F 的可用性和可行性。之后，进行敏感性分析和对比研究，以进一步说明所提方法的合理性和有效性。