Solar wind parameters, the solar radio flux index (F10.7), the Sun's declination and the SuperMAG Electrojet index are used to construct a Bayesian inference-based empirical model for scintillation indices (S₄ and σ_Φ) at high latitudes. For the present study, measurements from three Global Positioning System (GPS) L1 receivers located in the auroral zone, the cusp and in the polar cap are selected, respectively. The solar wind characteristics include the solar wind speed (V_SW) and ram pressure (ρ_SW) as well as the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) B_y and the B_z components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Following a brief assessment on the independence of the variables (predictors), prior probabilities of occurrence in the case of a multinomial classification are constructed. Posterior-probabilities are then deduced for any arbitrary set of predictors. We show that the model captures most variations seen in the measured indices whether they are associated or not with transient interplanetary events. Although the model tends to underestimate the actual phase index measurements, 95% of the validated events are predicted with an error less than 0.034 rad in σ_Φ. For the amplitude scintillation index, 5% of validated events have an error larger than 0.019.

中文翻译：

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基于贝叶斯推理的高纬度闪烁指数经验模型

太阳风参数、太阳射电通量指数 (F10.7)、太阳偏角和 SuperMAG Electrojet 指数用于构建高纬度闪烁指数（S ₄和σ _Φ）的基于贝叶斯推理的经验模型。对于本研究，分别选择了来自位于极光区、尖顶和极冠中的三个全球定位系统 (GPS) L 1 接收器的测量结果。太阳风特征包括太阳风速（V _SW）和撞击压力（ρ _SW）以及地心太阳磁层（GSM）B _y和B _z行星际磁场 (IMF) 的组成部分。在对变量（预测变量）的独立性进行简要评估后，构建多项分类情况下的先验概率。然后为任意一组预测变量推导出后验概率。我们表明该模型捕获了测量指数中看到的大多数变化，无论它们是否与瞬态行星际事件相关。尽管该模型往往会低估实际的相位指数测量值，但 95% 的验证事件的预测误差在σ _{Φ 中}小于 0.034 rad 。对于振幅闪烁指数，5% 的验证事件的误差大于 0.019。