This study investigates changes and uncertainties to cool-season (November-March) storm tides along the U.S. northeast coast in the 21st century under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to late 20th century. A high-fidelity (50-m coastal resolution) hydrodynamic storm tide model is forced with three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) over three decadal periods (historical, mid-21st century, and late-21st century) to project future changes in peak storm tide elevations at coastal counties in the region. While there is no absolute consensus on future changes to storm tides, for any one future decade two out of the three RCMs project an increase at counties along the Hudson River, Delaware River, and northern Chesapeake Bay due to more intense cyclones that track inland of these locations leading to favorable surge generating conditions. The same RCMs also project a decrease at counties facing the open ocean in the mid-Atlantic Bight as cyclone densities just offshore of the coastline decrease, particularly by late-century. The greater tidal range in northern areas of the region leads to uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes to storm tide levels due to the arbitrary timing of the local tidal stage and the surge-producing weather event. This random tide-weather timing is less important in the Chesapeake Bay and unimportant in Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. Similar to other recent studies, we highlight that sea level rise is likely to be more critical than storm climatology for future changes to the cool-season coastal flooding potential.

中文翻译：

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21 世纪美国东北部沿海凉爽季节风暴潮的预计变化

本研究调查了与 20 世纪后期相比，在高 RCP8.5 排放情景下，21 世纪美国东北海岸冷季（11 月至 3 月）风暴潮的变化和不确定性。一个高保真（50 米沿海分辨率）水动力风暴潮汐模型在三个十年期（历史、21 世纪中叶和 21 世纪后期）内被迫使用三个动态缩小的区域气候模型 (RCM) 来预测未来的变化该地区沿海县的峰值风暴潮高度。虽然对风暴潮的未来变化没有绝对的共识，但在未来的任何一个十年中，三个 RCM 中有两个预测哈德逊河沿岸县、特拉华河、和切萨皮克湾北部，由于更强烈的气旋跟踪这些地点的内陆，导致有利的浪涌产生条件。相同的 RCM 还预测大西洋中部面向公海的县将减少，因为海岸线近海的气旋密度降低，特别是到本世纪后期。由于当地潮汐阶段和产生潮汐的天气事件的随机时间，该地区北部地区更大的潮汐范围导致风暴潮位预测变化的幅度和迹象的不确定性。这种随机的潮汐天气时间在切萨皮克湾不太重要，在阿尔伯马尔湾和帕姆利科湾不重要。与最近的其他研究类似，