We collect data on 75 million GBP of tennis bets over a 6 year period to analyze whether participants in high-stakes environments recognize simple framing differences. The structure of this market means that we can place the same bet at the same time in two different ways. These two isomorphic bets are framed differently, and often priced differently. We find that bettors make frequent mistakes, choosing the worse of the two bets in 35% of cases. However, bettors who choose the inferior price earn higher returns from their bets, suggesting that their effort has been focused on fundamental information acquisition rather than bet execution. The net result is that market selection may, if anything, slightly favor those who are unable, or unwilling, to recognize framing differences.

中文翻译：

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框架效应和市场选择假设：来自现实世界同构赌注的证据

我们收集了 6 年间 7500 万英镑网球投注的数据，以分析高风险环境中的参与者是否识别出简单的框架差异。这个市场的结构意味着我们可以同时以两种不同的方式下相同的赌注。这两个同构赌注的框架不同，而且通常定价不同。我们发现投注者经常犯错，在 35% 的情况下选择了两种投注中较差的一种。然而，选择较低价格的投注者从他们的投注中获得更高的回报，这表明他们的努力一直集中在获取基本信息而不是投注执行上。最终的结果是，市场选择可能会稍微偏向那些无法或不愿意承认框架差异的人。