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Relationship between ocean ecosystem indicators and year class strength of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas)
Progress in Oceanography ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102618
Sylvia Behrens Yamada , Jennifer L. Fisher , P. Michael Kosro

The annual abundance of the non-native European green crab, Carcinus maenas, in Oregon estuaries varies greatly with ocean conditions. Average numbers were high following the 1997-1998 El Niño, decreased and remained low (<0.3 per trap) until they increased (>2 per trap) following the extended anomalous warming in 2014 - 2016. The year class strength of young crabs is strongly linked to ocean indicators during their planktonic larval development. Many of the same physical and biological ecosystem indicators used in salmon forecasting are also correlated with green crabs, but in the opposite direction. While cold ocean conditions benefit salmon, warm ocean indicators are positively linked to green crab year class strength. Among the best indicators for green crab year class strength are winter water temperatures, the sign of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, the day of physical and biological spring transitions, and negative biomass anomalies of northern copepods. These correlations suggest that green crabs need (1) warm winters (temperature >10°C), which enable larvae to complete their development in the near-shore, (2) strong northward flow of coastal waters during winter, which allows larvae to be transported from established populations to the south and (3) coastal circulation patterns that keep larvae close to shore, where they can be carried by wind and tidal currents into estuaries to settle. By using a relatively simple stoplight approach of ranking indicators, we were able to explain 69% of the inter-annual variability in green crab year class strength, while a quantitative metric of a combination of indicators explained 64% of the variability. Recruitment in 2018 and 2019 exceeded what was expected from the suite of ocean indicators. We discuss the possible role of additional larval sources, from the north or from local estuaries, that may have contributed to the increased recruitment during these years. If breeding populations of green crabs in Oregon and Washington continue to build, the relationships between ocean conditions and recruitment we have developed based solely on larval sources from the south could be greatly underestimating recruitment in the future.



中文翻译:

海洋生态系统指标与入侵欧洲绿蟹(Carcinus maenas)年级强度的关系

非本地欧洲绿蟹Carcinus maenas的年丰度在俄勒冈州,河口随海洋条件变化很大。1997 年至 1998 年厄尔尼诺现象之后,平均数量较高,随后下降并保持在较低水平(每个陷阱 <0.3 个),直到 2014 年至 2016 年异常变暖持续增加(每个陷阱 >2 个)。 幼蟹的年级强度很强与浮游幼虫发育过程中的海洋指标有关。鲑鱼预测中使用的许多相同的物理和生物生态系统指标也与绿蟹相关,但方向相反。虽然寒冷的海洋条件有利于鲑鱼,但温暖的海洋指标与绿蟹年级强度呈正相关。青蟹年级强度的最佳指标包括冬季水温、太平洋年代际振荡指数的标志、物理和生物春季转变的日子、和北部桡足类动物的负生物量异常。这些相关性表明,青蟹需要 (1) 温暖的冬季 (温度 >10°C),这使得幼虫能够在近岸完成发育,(2) 冬季沿海水域向北流动,这使得幼虫能够(3) 沿海环流模式使幼虫靠近海岸,在那里它们可以被风和潮汐带到河口定居。通过使用相对简单的指标排名方法,我们能够解释 69% 的青蟹年级强度的年际变化,而指标组合的定量度量解释了 64% 的变化。2018 年和 2019 年的招聘超出了海洋指标套件的预期。我们讨论了来自北部或当地河口的其他幼虫来源的可能作用,这些来源可能导致这些年来招募的增加。如果俄勒冈州和华盛顿州的绿蟹繁殖种群继续增加,我们仅根据南方的幼虫来源建立的海洋条件与招募之间的关系可能会大大低估未来的招募。

更新日期:2021-06-07
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