Wildfires of uncharacteristic severity, a consequence of climate changes and accumulated fuels, can cause amplified or novel impacts to archaeological resources. The archaeological record includes physical features associated with human activity; these exist within ecological landscapes and provide a unique long-term perspective on human–environment interactions. The potential for fire-caused damage to archaeological materials is of major concern because these resources are irreplaceable and non-renewable, have social or religious significance for living peoples, and are protected by an extensive body of legislation. Although previous studies have modeled ecological burn severity as a function of environmental setting and climate, the fidelity of these variables as predictors of archaeological fire effects has not been evaluated. This study, focused on prehistoric archaeological sites in a fire-prone and archaeologically rich landscape in the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico, USA, identified the environmental and climate variables that best predict observed fire severity and fire effects to archaeological features and artifacts. Machine learning models (Random Forest) indicate that topography and variables related to pre-fire weather and fuel condition are important predictors of fire effects and severity at archaeological sites. Fire effects were more likely to be present when fire-season weather was warmer and drier than average and within sites located in sloped, treed settings. Topographic predictors were highly important for distinguishing unburned, moderate, and high site burn severity as classified in post-fire archaeological assessments. High-severity impacts were more likely at archaeological sites with southern orientation or on warmer, steeper, slopes with less accumulated surface moisture, likely associated with lower fuel moistures and high potential for spreading fire. Models for predicting where and when fires may negatively affect the archaeological record can be used to prioritize fuel treatments, inform fire management plans, and guide post-fire rehabilitation efforts, thus aiding in cultural resource preservation.

中文翻译：

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预测野火对美国新墨西哥州 Jemez 山脉史前考古记录的影响

异常严重的野火是气候变化和燃料积累的结果，会对考古资源造成更大的或新的影响。考古记录包括与人类活动相关的物理特征；这些存在于生态景观中，为人类与环境的相互作用提供了独特的长期视角。火灾对考古材料造成破坏的可能性是一个主要问题，因为这些资源是不可替代和不可再生的，对活着的人具有社会或宗教意义，并受到广泛的立法机构的保护。尽管之前的研究已将生态烧伤严重程度建模为环境设置和气候的函数，但尚未评估这些变量作为考古火灾影响预测因子的保真度。这项研究，专注于美国新墨西哥州 Jemez 山脉易发生火灾且考古丰富的景观中的史前考古遗址，确定了最能预测观察到的火灾严重程度和火灾对考古特征和文物的影响的环境和气候变量。机器学习模型（随机森林）表明，与火灾前天气和燃料条件相关的地形和变量是考古遗址火灾影响和严重程度的重要预测因子。当火灾季节天气比平均温度更暖和更干燥时，以及位于倾斜、树木繁茂的场所内时，更可能出现火灾影响。地形预测因子对于区分火灾后考古评估中分类的未燃烧、中度和高度现场燃烧严重程度非常重要。南向考古遗址或更温暖、更陡峭的斜坡上，积聚的表面水分较少，这可能与较低的燃料水分和较高的火势蔓延可能性有关。预测火灾可能在何时何地对考古记录产生负面影响的模型可用于确定燃料处理的优先顺序、通知火灾管理计划并指导火灾后的恢复工作，从而有助于文化资源的保护。