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Impact assessment of soybean yield and water productivity in Brazil due to climate change
European Journal of Agronomy ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2021.126329
Evandro Henrique Figueiredo Moura da Silva , Luis Alberto Silva Antolin , Alencar Junior Zanon , Aderson Soares Andrade , Henrique Antunes de Souza , Kassio dos Santos Carvalho , Nilson Aparecido Vieira , Fabio Ricardo Marin

In the next decades, the population is expected to rise by more than two billion people, and the projections of climate change have been considered as one of the greatest future challenges for world food security. Soybean represents more than 60 % of all plant protein produced in the world, and Brazil is the largest world exporter and the second-largest producer. In this paper, we simulated soybean yields for 16 strategically selected agroclimatic zones (CZs) to represent Brazilian production. Experiments conducted throughout the country were used to calibrate the CROPGRO-Soybean model for Brazilian conditions, for the main maturity groups used in Brazil, to simulate current and 40 future climate scenarios, provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for 2050 in the both 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCP). We found soybean yield varying by +1 to +32 % across 16 CZs in the average scenario of future climate when compared to the current yields. Yet, we found an increase of about 5% in the yield production risk for RCP 8.5. The main reason for such results was associated with the positive effect of increasing CO2 on crop water productivity, which overcomes the negative effects of temperature and water stress increases on rainfed Brazilian soybeans.



中文翻译:

气候变化对巴西大豆产量和水资源生产力的影响评估

在接下来的几十年里,人口预计将增加超过 20 亿,气候变化的预测被认为是未来世界粮食安全面临的最大挑战之一。大豆占世界生产的所有植物蛋白的 60% 以上,巴西是世界最大的出口国和第二大生产国。在本文中,我们模拟了 16 个战略选择的农业气候区 (CZ) 的大豆产量,以代表巴西的产量。在全国范围内进行的实验用于校准巴西条件的 CROPGRO-大豆模型,用于巴西使用的主要成熟组,以模拟当前和 40 个未来气候情景,由耦合模型比对项目 5 (CMIP5) 提供的 2050 年4.5 和 8.5 代表性浓度途径 (RCP)。我们发现,与当前产量相比,在未来气候的平均情景中,16 个 CZ 的大豆产量变化幅度为 +1 至 +32%。然而,我们发现 RCP 8.5 的产量风险增加了约 5%。这种结果的主要原因与增加二氧化碳的积极影响有关2对作物水分生产力的影响,克服了温度和水分压力增加对雨养巴西大豆的负面影响。

更新日期:2021-06-07
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