Due to the current financial constraints in the energy industry, investors need realistic risk evaluation and economic analysis in energy investment projects. On the other hand, energy system operators are continuously facing a wide range of challenges when dealing with asset management practices of the system components. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for the availability assessment of energy systems. This method provides an opportunity to predict system real behavior patterns in simulated time. According to the designed procedure, two new parameters for availability assessment are defined as the Failure Moment (FM) and the Repair Moment (RM). FM and RM of the components are estimated by the Monte Carlo method based on the time-varying failure rate and repair rate, respectively. This process is continued for all selected components in the system lifetime. As a common practice for demonstrating novel methodologies, the proposed method of this study is applied to the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plants. The results show that realistic availability evaluation for energy systems with the Monte Carlo method can cause a 4.4% reduction in nominal fuel consumption (16.79 kg/s as an average fuel flow rate vs. 17.562 kg/s as nominal amount) and a 5.05% reduction in nominal power generation. Therefore, this consideration makes the investment analysis more accurate and the decision to invest more interesting.

由于当前能源行业的资金紧张，投资者需要对能源投资项目进行现实的风险评估和经济分析。另一方面，能源系统运营商在处理系统组件的资产管理实践时不断面临广泛的挑战。在本文中，提出了一种用于能源系统可用性评估的新方法。该方法提供了在模拟时间内预测系统真实行为模式的机会。根据设计的程序，可用性评估的两个新参数被定义为失效时刻（FM）和修复时刻（RM）。部件的 FM 和 RM 分别根据时变故障率和修复率通过蒙特卡罗方法估计。对于系统生命周期中的所有选定组件，此过程将继续进行。作为展示新方法的常见做法，本研究提出的方法应用于联合循环燃气轮机发电厂。结果表明，使用蒙特卡罗方法对能源系统进行实际可用性评估可以使标称燃料消耗量减少 4.4%（平均燃料流量为 16.79 kg/s，而标称量为 17.562 kg/s）和 5.05%降低标称发电量。因此，这种考虑使投资分析更准确，投资决策更有趣。结果表明，使用蒙特卡罗方法对能源系统进行实际可用性评估可以使标称燃料消耗量降低 4.4%（平均燃料流量为 16.79 kg/s，而标称量为 17.562 kg/s）和 5.05%降低标称发电量。因此，这种考虑使投资分析更准确，投资决策更有趣。结果表明，使用蒙特卡罗方法对能源系统进行实际可用性评估可以使标称燃料消耗量降低 4.4%（平均燃料流量为 16.79 kg/s，而标称量为 17.562 kg/s）和 5.05%降低标称发电量。因此，这种考虑使投资分析更准确，投资决策更有趣。