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Cognitive heterogeneity and complex belief elicitation
Experimental Economics ( IF 2.387 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s10683-021-09722-x
Ingrid Burfurd 1 , Tom Wilkening 2
Affiliation  

The Stochastic Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (SBDM) mechanism is a theoretically elegant way of eliciting incentive-compatible beliefs under a variety of risk preferences. However, the mechanism is complex and there is concern that some participants may misunderstand its incentive properties. We use a two-part design to evaluate the relationship between participants’ probabilistic reasoning skills, task complexity, and belief elicitation. We first identify participants whose decision-making is consistent and inconsistent with probabilistic reasoning using a task in which non-Bayesian modes of decision-making lead to violations of stochastic dominance. We then elicit participants’ beliefs in both easy and hard decision problems. Relative to Introspection, there is less variation in belief errors between easy and hard problems in the SBDM mechanism. However, there is a greater difference in belief errors between consistent and inconsistent participants. These results suggest that while the SBDM mechanism encourages individuals to think more carefully about beliefs, it is more sensitive to heterogeneity in probabilistic reasoning. In a follow-up experiment, we also identify participants with high and low fluid intelligence with a Raven task, and high and low proclivities for cognitive effort using an extended Cognitive Reflection Test. Although performance on these tasks strongly predict errors in both the SBDM mechanism and Introspection, there is no significant interaction effect between the elicitation mechanism and either ability or effort. Our results suggest that mechanism complexity is an important consideration when using elicitation mechanisms, and that participants’ probabilistic reasoning is an important consideration when interpreting elicited beliefs.



中文翻译:

认知异质性和复杂的信念诱导

随机 Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (SBDM) 机制是在各种风险偏好下引出激励相容信念的理论上优雅的方式。然而,该机制较为复杂,担心部分参与者可能会误解其激励属性。我们使用两部分设计来评估参与者的概率推理技能、任务复杂性和信念诱导之间的关系。我们首先使用非贝叶斯决策模式导致违反随机支配的任务来确定其决策与概率推理一致和不一致的参与者。然后,我们引出参与者对简单和困难决策问题的信念。相对于 Introspection,SBDM 机制中简单问题和困难问题之间的信念错误变化较小。然而,一致参与者和不一致参与者之间的信念错误差异更大。这些结果表明,虽然 SBDM 机制鼓励个人更仔细地思考信念,但它对概率推理中的异质性更敏感。在后续实验中,我们还使用 Raven 任务识别具有高和低流体智力的参与者,以及使用扩展的认知反射测试识别认知努力的高和低倾向。尽管在这些任务上的表现强烈预测了 SBDM 机制和内省中的错误,但启发机制与能力或努力之间没有显着的交互作用。我们的结果表明,在使用启发机制时,机制复杂性是一个重要的考虑因素,

更新日期:2021-06-04
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