Purpose

The main purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on environmental degradation in India over the period 1971–2016. Additionally, this paper considers the role of financial development, energy consumption intensity and economic growth in explaining the variation of environmental degradation in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors applied the power generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to measure inflation volatility and used it as a proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty. From a methodological perspective, the authors employ the autoregressive distributive lag bound testing model to establish the long-run equilibrium association between the variables. The Toda–Yamamoto causality approach has been used to examine the direction of causality between the variables.

Findings

Findings suggest that macroeconomic uncertainty exerts a positive effect on carbon emissions, indicating that higher inflation volatility, as a proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty, hinders India's environmental quality. Financial development, economic growth and energy consumption intensity have also adversely impacted environmental quality.

Practical implications

The negative association between macroeconomic uncertainty and environmental degradation calls for some stringent policy actions. While formulating policies to promote growth and maintain stability, policymakers and government stakeholders should take into account the environmental effects of macroeconomic policies. There is a need to implement more environmental-friendly technologies in the financial sector that could reduce carbon emission.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first that considers the role of macroeconomic uncertainty along with financial development and energy intensity in an emerging economy like India.

中文翻译：

---

宏观经济的不确定性和金融发展是否会导致环境退化？来自新兴经济体的证据

目的

本文的主要目的是实证研究 1971-2016 年间宏观经济不确定性对印度环境退化的影响。此外，本文还考虑了金融发展、能源消费强度和经济增长在解释印度环境退化变化方面的作用。

设计/方法/方法

作者应用幂广义自回归条件异方差模型来衡量通胀波动性，并将其用作宏观经济不确定性的代理。从方法论的角度来看，作者采用自回归分布滞后界限检验模型来建立变量之间的长期均衡关联。Toda-Yamamoto 因果关系方法已用于检查变量之间的因果关系方向。

发现

研究结果表明，宏观经济的不确定性对碳排放产生了积极的影响，表明作为宏观经济不确定性的代表的较高的通货膨胀波动性阻碍了印度的环境质量。金融发展、经济增长和能源消耗强度也对环境质量产生不利影响。

实际影响

宏观经济不确定性与环境退化之间的负面关联要求采取一些严格的政策行动。政策制定者和政府利益相关者在制定促进增长和维护稳定的政策时，应考虑宏观经济政策对环境的影响。需要在金融部门实施更多环保技术，以减少碳排放。

原创性/价值

据作者所知，本研究首次考虑了宏观经济不确定性以及金融发展和能源强度在印度等新兴经济体中的作用。