The social world is often portrayed as being less predictable and more uncertain than the nonsocial world. People may therefore feel the need to search more for information before making a choice. However, we suggest that cognitive tools such as social projection and norm-based expectation may help people to predict others' behaviors in the social world and thus serve as a substitute for information search. We argue that in situations where the environment affords this possibility, social uncertainty may in fact trigger less search than nonsocial uncertainty. Consistent with our expectations, findings from two experiments showed that participants sampled considerably less and systematically differently in a mini-ultimatum game (mUG; social uncertainty) than in structurally identical lotteries (nonsocial uncertainty). Even selfish individuals sensitive to the risk of rejection did not sample more than others, let alone as much as people in lotteries. Raising the stakes strongly increased sampling effort in lotteries but not in the social game. When evaluating risks based on outcomes alone, participants also anticipated searching less in mUGs than in lotteries, indicating that they were aware of norm-based regularities in social worlds and that they exploited those regularities to guide their expectations. The findings highlight that the structure of social environments can enable decision makers to use cognitive tools to navigate uncertainty without needing to invest in extensive search.

中文翻译：

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并非所有的不确定性都被平等对待：社会和非社会不确定性下的信息搜索

与非社会世界相比，社会世界通常被描述为更不可预测和更不确定。因此，人们可能会觉得在做出选择之前需要更多地搜索信息。然而，我们建议诸如社会投射和基于规范的期望等认知工具可以帮助人们预测他人在社会世界中的行为，从而替代信息搜索。我们认为，在环境提供这种可能性的情况下，社会不确定性实际上可能比非社会不确定性触发更少的搜索。与我们的预期一致，两项实验的结果表明，与结构相同的彩票（非社会不确定性）相比，参与者在迷你最后通牒游戏（mUG；社会不确定性）中抽取的样本要少得多且系统性不同。即使是对被拒绝风险敏感的自私个人，也没有比其他人多抽样，更不用说像彩票中的人那样多。提高赌注大大增加了彩票的抽样工作量，但在社交游戏中却没有。在仅根据结果评估风险时，参与者还预计在 mUG 中的搜索次数少于在彩票中的搜索次数，这表明他们意识到社会世界中基于规范的规律性，并且他们利用这些规律性来指导他们的期望。研究结果强调，社会环境的结构可以使决策者能够使用认知工具来导航不确定性，而无需投资于广泛的搜索。提高赌注大大增加了彩票的抽样工作量，但在社交游戏中却没有。在仅根据结果评估风险时，参与者还预计在 mUG 中的搜索次数少于在彩票中的搜索次数，这表明他们意识到社会世界中基于规范的规律性，并且他们利用这些规律性来指导他们的期望。研究结果强调，社会环境的结构可以使决策者能够使用认知工具来导航不确定性，而无需投资于广泛的搜索。提高赌注大大增加了彩票的抽样工作量，但在社交游戏中却没有。在仅根据结果评估风险时，参与者还预计在 mUG 中的搜索次数少于在彩票中的搜索次数，这表明他们意识到社会世界中基于规范的规律性，并且他们利用这些规律性来指导他们的期望。研究结果强调，社会环境的结构可以使决策者能够使用认知工具来导航不确定性，而无需投资于广泛的搜索。