Abstract

Spatial analyses focus to a large extent on the ‘bright side of proximity’, namely voluntary (positive-sum) interactions such as, e.g., in trade and innovation. In contrast, the violent ‘dark side of proximity’ has often been overlooked. To address this gap, we study the role of spatial proximity in ethnic conflict, developing a structural model of spatial violence in which ethnic groups recruit fighters strategically across space. The spatial decay of violence determines the equilibrium placement of fighters and drives specific spatial patterns of conflict. The structural parameters of the model are estimated using fine-grained data on ethnic groups and violence from twenty-four ethnically divided countries. We find that in more than half of these, spatial decay is substantial: half of all ethnic violence dissipates after 350 km. Violence is asymmetric, is higher near ethnic borders and typically originates from outside a location. Counterfactual estimates suggest that setting up barriers would reduce violence, but pacifying groups suffering from grievances would often be more effective.

中文翻译：

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跨空间的种族暴力

摘要

空间分析在很大程度上关注“接近的光明面”，即自愿（正和）相互作用，例如贸易和创新。相比之下，暴力的'黑暗接近的一面”经常被忽视。为了解决这一差距，我们研究了空间邻近性在种族冲突中的作用，开发了一种空间暴力的结构模型，在该模型中，种族群体在太空中战略性地招募战士。暴力的空间衰减决定了战士的平衡位置，并推动了特定的冲突空间模式。该模型的结构参数是使用来自 24 个种族分裂国家的种族群体和暴力的细粒度数据估计的。我们发现，其中一半以上的空间衰减很大：所有种族暴力中有一半在 350 公里后消散。暴力是不对称的，在种族边界附近更高，并且通常起源于某个地点之外。反事实估计表明，设置障碍会减少暴力，