The article examines how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) performs its self-proclaimed role as ‘mapmaker. We seek to contribute to the emerging literature on global environmental assessments (GEA) and climate politics by reconstructing how the IPCC imagines the corridor for climate mitigation. Our particular focus is on the emergence of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) as the preferred scientific approach to projecting mitigation pathways consistent with average global temperature target. Taking our lead from current research in science and technology studies (STS) and sociology of futures, we reconstruct the emergence of a science policy tradition of modeling in the field of climate change as a particular mode of anticipation. We summarize the main findings of this literature in order to illustrate the historical and socio-political context in which this mode of anticipation is embedded. Based on this genealogy, we demonstrate how, in its role as mapmaker, the IPCC has also functioned as a corridor maker. We highlight how the IPCC has achieved consensus on a limited set of mitigation pathways, thus effectively narrowing down the discursive space for imagining potential futures to pathways that are deemed technically feasible and cost-efficient. We conclude by discussing the political consequences of this mode of anticipation in order to give us a more comprehensive understanding of what is at stake in the politics of anticipation. We elucidate why the techno-economic framing of current mitigation pathways is highly restrictive, especially when it omits many cultural, political, and other dimensions involved in deploying CDR at scale in their ‘real-world’ context of application.

本文考察了政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 如何履行其自称为“地图制作者”的角色。我们试图通过重建 IPCC 对气候减缓走廊的设想，为有关全球环境评估 (GEA) 和气候政治的新兴文献做出贡献。我们特别关注综合评估模型 (IAM) 的出现，作为预测与全球平均温度目标一致的缓解路径的首选科学方法。以当前科学技术研究 (STS) 和未来社会学的研究为主导，我们将气候变化领域建模的科学政策传统的出现重建为一种特定的预测模式。我们总结了这些文献的主要发现，以说明这种预期模式嵌入的历史和社会政治背景。基于这个谱系，我们展示了 IPCC 如何在作为地图制作者的同时，也发挥了走廊制作者的作用。我们强调 IPCC 如何就一组有限的缓解路径达成共识，从而有效地将想象潜在未来的话语空间缩小到技术上可行且具有成本效益的路径。我们最后讨论了这种预期模式的政治后果，以便让我们更全面地了解预期政治中的利害关系。我们阐明了为什么当前缓解途径的技术经济框架具有高度限制性，尤其是当它忽略了许多文化、