Here we present several points for designing a probable playground concerning a new beginning of intelligence research within the XXI Century: the nature, definition, and measurement of the construct of interest, its development across the lifespan, its enhancement by varied means, and its place within the already identified human psychological traits. Predictions can go wrong when those who make them 1) assume that trends will be linear, 2) use script-writing assuming that they know what the responses to any trend will be, and 3) conflate primary facts with their interpretation. With these pitfalls in mind, we predict: 1) a proliferation of alternate models of the positive manifold; 2) The derailment of the field in the next decade or two with a new trendy research angle; 3) The gradual abandonment of classic IQ tests for intelligence research in favor of alternative measurements. We see a bright future for intelligence research, but dark spots cannot be discarded.

在这里，我们提出了设计关于 21 世纪情报研究新开端的可能游乐场的几个要点：兴趣构造的性质、定义和测量、它在整个生命周期中的发展、它通过各种方式的增强，以及它的位置在已经确定的人类心理特征中。当做出预测的人 1) 假设趋势是线性的，2) 使用脚本编写时，假设他们知道对任何趋势的反应，以及 3) 将主要事实与他们的解释混为一谈，那么预测可能会出错。考虑到这些陷阱，我们预测：1）正流形的替代模型的激增；2）该领域未来十年或两年的脱轨趋势，新的研究角度；3) 逐渐放弃用于智力研究的经典 IQ 测试，转而采用其他测量方法。我们看到了情报研究的光明前景，但不能丢弃黑点。