Across two studies (N = 120), we investigated the development of children’s ability to calibrate the certainty of verbal testimony with observable data that varied in the degree of predictive causal accuracy. In Study 1, 4- and 5-year-olds heard a certain explanation or an uncertain explanation about deterministic causal relations. The 5-year-olds made more accurate causal inferences when the informant provided a certain and more calibrated explanation. In Study 2, children heard similar explanations about probabilistic relations, making the uncertain informant more calibrated. The 5-year-olds were more likely to infer the correct causal relations when the informant was uncertain, but only when the explanation was attuned to the stochasticity of the individual causal events (or outcomes that sometimes occur). These findings imply that the capacity to integrate, and make efficient inferences, from distinct sources of knowledge emerges during the preschool years.

在两项研究 ( N  = 120) 中，我们调查了儿童使用可观察数据校准口头证词确定性的能力的发展，这些数据在预测因果准确性的程度上有所不同。在研究 1 中，4 岁和 5 岁的孩子听到了关于确定性因果关系的某种解释或不确定的解释。当线人提供特定且更准确的解释时，5 岁儿童做出更准确的因果推断。在研究 2 中，孩子们听到了关于概率关系的类似解释，使不确定的信息提供者更加校准。当信息提供者不确定时，5 岁儿童更有可能推断出正确的因果关系，但只有当解释与个别因果事件（或有时会发生）。这些发现意味着，从不同的知识来源整合和做出有效推理的能力在学龄前就出现了。