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The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan
Review of Development Economics ( IF 1.430 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-02 , DOI: 10.1111/rode.12792
Joseph Mawejje 1 , Patrick McSharry 2, 3, 4
Affiliation  

This study estimates the output loss in South Sudan as a result of the double shock of the protracted post-independence conflict and macroeconomic crisis. Using the synthetic control method for comparative studies, the analysis suggests that the cumulative loss in the growth rate of real per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) was 69.63% (or a yearly average of 15.65%) over the period 2012–2018. This resulted in an accumulated loss in the real per-capita GDP of US$7,070 (yearly average of US$1,010) and an accumulated loss in the aggregate GDP of US$81.1 billion (yearly average of US$11.6 billion) over the same period. Consequently, South Sudan's real per-capita GDP in 2018 was just a third of what it would have been in the absence of conflict. Moreover, we find that exports and investment were the main channels through which the economy was adversely impacted by the conflict. These results are robust to several placebo and robustness tests. Implications for future research are discussed.

中文翻译:

冲突的经济代价:来自南苏丹的证据

本研究估计,由于独立后旷日持久的冲突和宏观经济危机的双重冲击,南苏丹的产出损失。采用综合控制法进行比较研究,分析表明,2012-2018年人均国内生产总值(GDP)增速累计下降69.63%(年均15.65%)。这导致同期实际人均实际国内生产总值累计亏损7,070美元(年均1,010美元),累计国内生产总值累计亏损811亿美元(年均116亿美元)。因此,南苏丹 2018 年的实际人均 GDP 仅为没有冲突时的三分之一。而且,我们发现,出口和投资是经济受到冲突不利影响的主要渠道。这些结果对几个安慰剂和稳健性测试是稳健的。讨论了对未来研究的影响。
更新日期:2021-06-02
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