This ‘Debate Essay’ responds to the extensive overview of research on new venture survival provided by Soto-Simeone et al. (‘New venture survival: A review and extension’, International Journal of Management Reviews, 22(4), 2020, pp. 378–407). The material they reviewed exclusively emphasized the link between the talents, skills, awareness of the business owner and new venture outcomes. Our case is that such a review is incomplete, even misleading, because it omits the key concept of ‘chance’, and all references to the stream of literature demonstrating that new venture performance is best explained by the gambling analogy. We therefore set out the Gambler's Ruin model in which new venture performance is a random walk and exit depends on access to financial resources—chips. This model takes the entrepreneur out of entrepreneurship.

中文翻译：

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把企业家带出创业

这篇“辩论论文”回应了 Soto-Simeone 等人提供的关于新企业生存研究的广泛概述。（“新企业生存：回顾和扩展”，国际管理评论杂志，22(4)，2020 年，第 378-407 页。他们审查的材料专门强调了企业主的才能、技能、意识与新企业成果之间的联系。我们的情况是，这样的评论是不完整的，甚至具有误导性，因为它省略了“机会”的关键概念，并且所有引用文献都表明新企业的表现最好用赌博类比来解释。因此，我们提出了赌徒的毁灭模型，其中新企业的表现是随机游走，退出取决于获得金融资源——筹码。这种模式将企业家带离了创业精神。