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Rating the composition: Deconstructing the demand-side effects on transit use changes in California
Travel Behaviour and Society ( IF 5.850 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tbs.2021.05.007
Andrew Schouten , Evelyn Blumenberg , Brian D. Taylor

Transit use in the U.S. has been sliding since 2014, well before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest state, California, was also losing transit riders despite substantial public investment and increased service in the pre-pandemic period. This downturn prompted concern among transit managers and planners interested in service-side interventions to reverse the decline. However, relatively little is known about changes in the demand for public transit and how shifts in demand-side factors have affected patronage. Drawing on California data from the 2009 and 2017 National Household Travel Surveys, we quantify demand-side changes as a function of two factors—changes in ridership rates of various classes of transit riders (“rate effects”) and changes in the composition of those rider classes (“composition effects”). Statewide, we find that while shifts in the population composition were in some cases associated with lower levels of ridership, the largest declines in transit patronage were associated with falling ridership rates. Specifically, those with limited automobile access and Hispanic travelers rode transit far less frequently in 2017 compared to 2009. Transit ridership rates and rider composition in the San Francisco Bay Area were relatively stable during the study period, while both rate and compositional changes in the Los Angeles area were associated with much lower levels of total ridership. Overall, our findings demonstrate the important role of demand-side factors in understanding aggregate transit use, and suggest that planners and managers may have limited policy tools at their disposal when seeking to bolster ridership levels.



中文翻译:

对构成进行评级:解构加州交通使用变化的需求侧影响

自 2014 年以来,美国的公交使用量一直在下滑,早在 COVID-19 大流行开始之前。尽管在大流行前进行了大量公共投资并增加了服务,但最大的州加利福尼亚州也正在失去公交乘客。这种低迷引起了对服务方干预措施感兴趣以扭转下降趋势的交通管理人员和规划人员的担忧。然而,对于公共交通需求的变化以及需求侧因素的变化如何影响乘客量,人们知之甚少。从2009年和2017年全国家庭旅行调查借鉴加州的数据,我们量化需求方面的变化的两个功能的因素,改变乘客各类公交乘客(“速度效应”)和变化中的组成那些骑手类别(“组合效应”)。在全州范围内,我们发现,虽然在某些情况下人口构成的变化与客流量降低有关,但公交客流量的最大下降与客流量下降有关。具体而言,与 2009 年相比,2017 年汽车通行受限和西班牙裔旅客乘坐公交的频率要低得多。旧金山湾区的公交乘客率和乘客构成在研究期间相对稳定,而洛杉矶的乘客人数和乘客构成都发生了变化。安吉利斯地区的总乘客量要低得多。总体而言,我们的研究结果证明了需求方因素在理解公共交通使用总量方面的重要作用,

更新日期:2021-06-02
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