Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of real exchange rate undervaluation on Indonesia’s manufacturing exports in 22 manufacturing industries throughout 1990–2015. The study was undertaken by modifying a partial equilibrium model of monopolistic competition for exporting firms and using the augmented mean group (AMG) method. This study confirms that the real exchange rate, both misalignment and changes in levels (depreciation/appreciation), are insignificant in affecting Indonesia’s manufacturing exports. In addition, this study finds that manufactured exports are significantly determined by the manufactured exports in the previous period, real interest rates, real wages, labor productivity, and firm growth. This finding indicates that the exchange rate manipulation policy is not an important factor in strengthening the competitiveness of Indonesia’s manufacturing exports. We suggest policies that play more important roles in driving manufacturing exports are creating a competitive and conducive business climate, lowering domestic interest rates, and reforming the labor system.

摘要

本研究分析了 1990 年至 2015 年期间实际汇率低估对印度尼西亚 22 个制造业的制造业出口的影响。该研究是通过修改出口公司垄断竞争的部分均衡模型并使用增广均值组 (AMG) 方法进行的。本研究证实，实际汇率，无论是偏差还是水平变化（贬值/升值），对印度尼西亚制造业出口的影响都微不足道。此外，本研究发现，制成品出口受上一时期制成品出口、实际利率、实际工资、劳动生产率和企业增长的显着影响。这一发现表明，汇率操纵政策并不是增强印尼制造业出口竞争力的重要因素。我们认为，在推动制造业出口方面发挥更重要作用的政策是创造有竞争力和有利的商业环境、降低国内利率和改革劳动制度。