Recent research has shown an association between monthly law enforcement drug seizure events and accidental drug overdose deaths using cross-sectional data in a single state, whereby increased seizures correlated with more deaths. In this study, we conduct statistical analysis of street-level data on law enforcement drug seizures, along with street-level data on fatal and non-fatal overdose events, to determine possible micro-level causal associations between opioid-related drug seizures and overdoses. For this purpose, we introduce a novel, modified two-process Knox test that controls for self-excitation to measure clustering of overdoses nearby in space and time following law enforcement seizures. We observe a small, but statistically significant (p < 0.001), effect of 17.7 excess non-fatal overdoses per 1000 law enforcement seizures within three weeks and 250 m of a seizure. We discuss the potential causal mechanism for this association along with policy implications.

最近的研究表明，使用单一州的横断面数据，每月执法药物缉获事件与意外药物过量死亡之间存在关联，由此增加的缉获量与更多的死亡相关。在这项研究中，我们对执法药物缉获的街头数据以及致命和非致命过量事件的街头数据进行统计分析，以确定阿片类药物相关药物缉获和过量服用之间可能的微观因果关系. 为此，我们引入了一种新颖的、经过修改的两过程 Knox 测试，该测试控制自激，以测量执法缉获后在空间和时间上附近的过量聚集。我们观察到一个很小但具有统计意义的 ( p < 0.001)，在三周内和缉获 250 m 内，每 1000 次执法缉获中有 17.7 次非致命过量过量的影响。我们讨论了这种关联的潜在因果机制以及政策含义。