The persistence of wildlife populations is under threat as a consequence of human activities, which are degrading natural ecosystems. Commercial forestry is the greatest threat to biodiversity in boreal forests. Forestry practices have degraded most available habitat, threatening the persistence of natural populations. Understanding population responses is, therefore, critical for their conservation. Population viability analyses are effective tools to predict population persistence under forestry management. However, quantifying the mechanisms driving population responses is complex as population dynamics vary temporally and spatially. Metapopulation dynamics are governed by local dynamics and spatial factors, potentially mediating the impacts of forestry e.g., through dispersal. Here, we performed a seasonal, spatially explicit population viability analysis, using long-term data from a group-living territorial bird (Siberian jay, Perisoreus infaustus). We quantified the effects of forest management on metapopulation dynamics, via forest type-specific demography and spatially explicit dispersal, and how forestry impacted the stability of metapopulation dynamics. Forestry reduced metapopulation growth and stability, through negative effects on reproduction and survival. Territories in higher quality natural forest contributed more to metapopulation dynamics than managed forests, largely through demographic processes rather than dispersal. Metapopulation dynamics in managed forest were also less resilient to disturbances and consequently, may be more vulnerable to environmental change. Seasonal differences in source-sink dynamics observed in managed forest, but not natural forests, were caused by associated seasonal differences in dispersal. As shown here, capturing seasonal source-sink dynamics allows us to predict population persistence under human disturbance and to provide targeted conservation recommendations.

人类活动导致自然生态系统退化，野生动物种群的生存受到威胁。商业林业是对北方森林生物多样性的最大威胁。林业实践使大多数可用的栖息地退化，威胁到自然种群的持久性。因此，了解种群反应对其保护至关重要。种群生存力分析是预测林业管理下种群持久性的有效工具。然而，由于种群动态随时间和空间变化，量化驱动种群反应的机制是复杂的。集合种群动态受当地动态和空间因素的控制，可能通过散布等方式调节林业的影响。在这里，我们进行了季节性的，鱼腥草）。我们通过特定于森林类型的人口统计学和空间明确的分散，以及林业如何影响集合种群动态的稳定性，量化了森林管理对集合种群动态的影响。林业通过对繁殖和生存的负面影响降低了集合种群的增长和稳定性。与管理森林相比，高质量天然林中的领土对集合种群动态的贡献更大，这主要是通过人口过程而不是扩散。管理林中的复合种群动态对干扰的适应能力也较差，因此可能更容易受到环境变化的影响。在管理林而不是天然林中观察到的源汇动态的季节性差异是由相关的季节性扩散差异引起的。如图所示，