Purpose

This study aims to determine the nexus between agricultural production and agricultural loans for the period Q1 2003–Q4 2018 in Turkey.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ the time-series analyses within the scope of the study. Firstly, they run the Engle–Granger two-step cointegration test and the Toda–Yamamoto causality analysis. They also use the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model estimator and estimate the vector autoregression model for predicting the dynamic structure of time series.

Findings

The results of time series analyses reveal that the variables are cointegrated and there are causal relationships between agricultural loans and agricultural production. Also, the variance decomposition findings indicate that the effect of agricultural loans provided by development-investment banks and participation banks on agricultural production has increased over the years, and the deposit banks have a high impact on agricultural production. The results of the DOLS model indicate that agricultural loans have a positive effect on agricultural production.

Originality/value

This research is one of the few studies that comprehensively determines the direction of nexus between agricultural production and agricultural loans in Turkey economy. This is the first contribution of the study in the literature. Another contribution of this study is to investigate the nexus between agricultural production and agricultural loans for banking sector groups. Unlike other studies in the literature, this study calculates the variance decomposition by going beyond unit root and cointegration tests. Thus, this study has deep findings.

中文翻译：

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土耳其银行业集团的农业生产与农业贷款之间的关系

目的

本研究旨在确定土耳其 2003 年第一季度至 2018 年第四季度期间农业生产与农业贷款之间的关系。

设计/方法/方法

作者在研究范围内采用了时间序列分析。首先，他们运行 Engle-Granger 两步协整检验和 Toda-Yamamoto 因果分析。他们还使用动态普通最小二乘 (DOLS) 模型估计器和估计向量自回归模型来预测时间序列的动态结构。

发现

时间序列分析结果表明，变量是协整的，农业贷款与农业生产之间存在因果关系。此外，方差分解结果表明，开发投资银行和参股银行提供的农业贷款对农业生产的影响逐年增加，而存款银行对农业生产的影响较大。DOLS模型的结果表明，农业贷款对农业生产具有正向影响。

原创性/价值

该研究是为数不多的全面确定土耳其经济中农业生产与农业贷款关系方向的研究之一。这是该研究在文献中的第一个贡献。本研究的另一个贡献是调查农业生产与银行业集团农业贷款之间的关系。与文献中的其他研究不同，本研究通过超越单位根和协整检验来计算方差分解。因此，本研究具有深刻的发现。