Abstract

The world is rapidly converging towards lower fertility: in 2020, countries with a total fertility rate of less than 2.25 will encompass more than three-quarters of the world population. This implies that the determinants of childbearing will be increasingly similar in high-income and middle-income regions of the world. In this article, I discuss economic demography in relation to levels of childbearing. How do different societies distribute resources across the life course and between generations, and to what extent is this done through governmental transfers? The extent of such transfers varies considerably between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries, which I explored through data from the National Transfers Account project. I argue that in low-fertility societies, the extent to which the costs of childrearing are socialised is important for fertility. The extent to which childrearing is socialised will be an important determinant of future fertility levels and, if used as a population policy, offers a straightforward pathway to achieve a desirable population size. As the global fertility decline continues, such policies will be relevant to most societies and a tool for governments to affect fertility levels across many contexts.

摘要

世界正在迅速向低生育率方向发展：到 2020 年，总生育率低于 2.25 的国家将占世界人口的四分之三以上。这意味着生育的决定因素在世界高收入和中等收入地区将越来越相似。在本文中，我将讨论与生育水平相关的经济人口学。不同社会如何在整个生命历程中和代际之间分配资源，以及在多大程度上通过政府转移来分配资源？这种转移的程度在低收入、中等收入和高收入国家之间差异很大，我通过国民转移账户项目的数据进行了探讨。我认为在低生育率的社会中，育儿费用社会化的程度对生育率很重要。育儿社会化的程度将是未来生育水平的重要决定因素，如果用作人口政策，则提供了实现理想人口规模的直接途径。随着全球生育率持续下降，此类政策将适用于大多数社会，并成为政府在许多情况下影响生育率水平的工具。