Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998–2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of tropical Pacific variability, better understanding this Atlantic–Pacific teleconnection is key for improving climate predictions, but the robustness and strength of this link are uncertain. Analyzing a multi-model set of sensitivity experiments, we find that models differ by a factor of 10 in simulating the amplitude of the Equatorial Pacific cooling response to observed AMV warming. The inter-model spread is mainly driven by different amounts of moist static energy injection from the tropical Atlantic surface into the upper troposphere. We reduce this inter-model uncertainty by analytically correcting models for their mean precipitation biases and we quantify that, following an observed 0.26 °C AMV warming, the equatorial Pacific cools by 0.11 °C with an inter-model standard deviation of 0.03 °C.

大西洋年代际变率 (AMV) 已通过其对热带太平洋的影响与观察到的 1998-2012 年全球变暖放缓有关。鉴于热带太平洋变率的全球重要性，更好地了解这种大西洋-太平洋遥相关是改进气候预测的关键，但这种联系的稳健性和强度尚不确定。分析一组多模型敏感性实验，我们发现模型在模拟赤道太平洋冷却响应对观察到的 AMV 变暖的幅度时相差 10 倍。模式间传播主要是由从热带大西洋表面注入对流层上部的不同数量的湿静态能量驱动的。