Drought and heat stress affect global wheat production and food security. Since these climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change, there is a growing need for effective planning and adaptive actions at all timescales relevant to the stakeholders and users in this sector. This work aims at assessing the forecast quality in predicting the evolution of drought and heat stress by using user-relevant agro-climatic indices such as Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Heat Magnitude Day Index (HMDI) on a multi-annual timescale, as this time horizon coincides with the long-term strategic planning of stakeholders in the wheat sector. We present the probabilistic skill and reliability of initialized decadal forecast to predict these indices for the months preceding the wheat harvest on a global spatial scale. The results reveal the usefulness of the study in a climate services context while showing that decadal climate forecasts are skillful and reliable over several wheat harvesting regions.

干旱和热应激影响全球小麦生产和粮食安全。由于预计这些气候灾害的频率和强度会因人为气候变化而增加，因此越来越需要与该部门的利益相关者和用户相关的所有时间尺度的有效规划和适应性行动。这项工作旨在通过使用与用户相关的农业气候指数，如多年时间尺度上的标准化降水蒸散指数 (SPEI) 和热强度日指数 (HMDI)，评估预测干旱和热应激演变的预报质量，由于这个时间跨度与小麦部门利益相关者的长期战略规划相吻合。我们展示了初始化十年预测的概率技能和可靠性，以在全球空间尺度上预测小麦收获前几个月的这些指数。结果揭示了该研究在气候服务背景下的有用性，同时表明年代际气候预测在几个小麦收获区是有技巧和可靠的。