This paper investigates the medium- to long-term effects on refugee labour market outcomes of the temporary employment bans being imposed on asylum seekers in many countries. Using a newly collected data set on employment restrictions together with individual data for refugees entering European countries between 1985 and 2012, our empirical strategy exploits the geographical and temporal variation in employment bans generated by their staggered introduction and removal coupled with frequent changes at the intensive margin. We find that exposure to a ban at arrival reduces refugee employment probability in post-ban years by 15%, an impact driven primarily by lower labour market participation. These effects are not mechanical, increase non-linearly in ban length, and last up to 10 years post arrival. The detrimental effects of employment bans are concentrated among less educated refugees, translate into lower occupational quality, and seem not to be driven by selective migration. Our causal estimates are robust to several identification tests accounting for the potential endogeneity of employment ban policies, including placebo analysis of non-refugee migrants and an instrumental variable strategy. We estimate a €37.6 billion output loss from the bans imposed on asylum seekers who arrived in Europe during the so-called 2015 refugee crisis.

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解除禁令？最初的就业限制和难民劳动力市场结果

本文调查了许多国家对寻求庇护者实施的临时就业禁令对难民劳动力市场结果的中长期影响。使用新收集的关于就业限制的数据集以及 1985 年至 2012 年期间进入欧洲国家的难民的个人数据，我们的实证策略利用了就业禁令的地理和时间差异，这些差异是由其交错引入和移除以及密集边际的频繁变化所产生的. 我们发现，抵达时受到禁令的影响会使难民在禁令后的就业概率降低 15%，这主要是由于劳动力市场参与度降低所致。这些影响不是机械的，禁令长度非线性增加，并且在到达后持续长达 10 年。就业禁令的不利影响集中在受教育程度较低的难民身上，转化为较低的职业质量，而且似乎不是由选择性移民驱动的。我们的因果估计对于解释就业禁令政策潜在内生性的几个识别测试是稳健的，包括对非难民移民的安慰剂分析和工具变量策略。我们估计，对在所谓的 2015 年难民危机期间抵达欧洲的寻求庇护者实施的禁令将造成 376 亿欧元的产出损失。包括对非难民移民的安慰剂分析和工具变量策略。我们估计，对在所谓的 2015 年难民危机期间抵达欧洲的寻求庇护者实施的禁令将造成 376 亿欧元的产出损失。包括对非难民移民的安慰剂分析和工具变量策略。我们估计，对在所谓的 2015 年难民危机期间抵达欧洲的寻求庇护者实施的禁令将造成 376 亿欧元的产出损失。