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The June 12, 2017 M6.3 Karaburun-Lesvos earthquake of the Northern Aegean Sea: Aftershock forecasting and stress transfer
Tectonophysics ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-29 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2021.228945
Murat Utkucu , Süleyman S. Nalbant , Ali Pınar , John McCloskey , Mairead Nicbhloscaidh , Fatih Turhan , Hilal Yalçın , Serap Kızılbuğa , Zeynep Coşkun , Esra Kalkan Ertan , Levent Gülen

The June 12, 2017 Karaburun-Lesvos (North Aegean Sea) earthquake occurred along the NW-SE trending Lesvos fault, along the southern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. In the present study seismotectonic aspects of the 2017 Karaburun-Lesvos earthquake and its aftershock sequence are studied. A rupture model based on finite source analysis of the teleseismic waveforms has shown that the earthquake was associated with a failure of single asperity. About 5 days after the mainshock a temporary seismic network of 8 broadband stations (Real-time Aftershock Forecasting in Turkey, RAFT) had been deployed along the Turkish Aegean coast to enhance the existing regional seismic monitoring and the acquired data have been used to relocate the aftershocks. The temporary deployment significantly improved the aftershock detection capacity and resulted in more precise locations. Prior to the monitoring enhancement a single widespread aftershock cluster was observed; however, the relocated aftershocks, augmented by the RAFT stations, identified two distinct spatially isolated clusters. The first day of the aftershock sequence has been used for retrospective real-time aftershock forecasting up to 7 days following the mainshock. Our results indicate that with a method developed by Omi et al. (2013) can be used forecasting aftershocks over a week period successfully employing incompletely detected aftershocks occurred in the first day following the mainshock. Stress tensor analysis of the 33 aftershock source mechanisms has shown local dominance of the extensional tectonics with azimuth and plunge pairs for the three principal stress axes as σ1, σ2 and σ3 are (255°; 76°), (131°; 8°) and (39°; 11°), respectively. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the mainshock onto the nodal planes of the aftershocks show that ~67% of the 33 aftershocks have been exposed to positive stress change at least on one of the nodal planes.



中文翻译:

2017 年 6 月 12 日北爱琴海 M6.3 Karaburun-Lesvos 地震:余震预测和应力传递

2017 年 6 月 12 日,卡拉布伦-莱斯沃斯(北爱琴海)地震沿 NW-SE 向莱斯沃斯断层发生,沿北安纳托利亚断裂带的南线。在本研究中,研究了 2017 年卡拉布伦-莱斯沃斯地震的地震构造方面及其余震序列。基于远震波形的有限震源分析的破裂模型表明,地震与单一粗糙体的破坏有关。主震发生后约 5 天,在土耳其爱琴海沿岸部署了一个由 8 个宽带台站(土耳其实时余震预报,RAFT)组成的临时地震网络,以加强现有的区域地震监测,并利用所获得的数据重新定位余震。临时部署显着提高了余震探测能力,并导致更精确的位置。在监测增强之前,观察到一个广泛的余震群;然而,重新定位的余震,由 RAFT 站增强,确定了两个不同的空间隔离集群。余震序列的第一天已用于主震后长达 7 天的回顾性实时余震预报。我们的结果表明,使用 Omi 等人开发的方法。(2013) 可用于预测一周内的余震,成功地采用了主震后第一天发生的未完全检测到的余震。σ 1σ 2σ 3分别为(255°;76°)、(131°;8°)和(39°;11°)。主震传递到余震节点平面上的库仑应力变化表明,33 次余震中的约 67% 至少在其中一个节点平面上经历了正应力变化。

更新日期:2021-06-03
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