This work presents an assessment of sugar-energy sector expansion in Brazil, focusing on the growth of the bioelectricity supply and considering two scenarios. The first scenario, called the BASE scenario, was based on the projection made by the Brazilian Energy Research Company (EPE) for the Brazilian commitments at the Paris agreement, presented during the COP 21 (Conference of the parties) conference and ratified in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), assuming that all the electricity from biomass could be produced by the sugarcane sector. The second is a scenario considering a higher share of the sugar-energy sector in the Brazilian electricity matrix, called the BIO scenario. The investment needed for each scenario was evaluated, using a bottom-up approach and assuming currently available technologies. The results showed that the BIO scenario could produce 55 TWh of surplus electricity more than the BASE scenario, boosting the share of the sugar-energy sector in the electricity matrix, reaching a total of almost 130 TWh per year and requiring an additional investment that was 39% higher than in the BASE scenario. As the sugarcane surplus electricity could replace electricity from natural gas power plants, the BIO scenario could reduce emissions by 18.4 MtCO₂eq in comparison with the BASE scenario. Through the input–output model used to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts, it was observed that the BIO scenario could add 919 000 job positions and cause a positive impact to the gross domestic product (GDP) of US$ 28.8 billion, which corresponds, in comparison with the BASE scenario, to adding 83 000 more job positions, and provides a 12.5% higher contribution to GDP. The total output was 8.6% higher in the BIO scenario in comparison with the BASE scenario. All of these analyses were carried out for three selected regions in the country: the traditional region, comprising São Paulo and Paraná states; the expansion region, including Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states; and the rest of Brazil region. A spillover effect was observed over the total output in the Rest of Brazil region, showing that the impact of the investment over this region was proportionally higher in comparison to the investment done in other in other regions. The Rest of Brazil Region also presents a higher share of the indireect effects over the GDP, jobs created and total output. The final results of this research show the potential of the sugar-energy sector to boost electricity generation, which can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and to preserving the share of renewable sources in the Brazilian electricity matrix and increasing energy security and generation closer to the biggest centers of consumption, mitigating challenges for electricity transmission between subsystems in the National Interconnected System (SIN). © 2021 Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

中文翻译：

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在国家自主贡献的背景下，应用自下而上的方法和投入产出模型，评估巴西电力矩阵中糖能源部门的社会经济影响、排放和分享潜力

这项工作对巴西糖能源部门的扩张进行了评估，重点是生物电力供应的增长，并考虑了两种情况。第一种情景，称为 BASE 情景，基于巴西能源研究公司 (EPE) 对巴西在巴黎协定中的承诺所做的预测，在 COP 21（缔约方大会）会议期间提出并在全国范围内获得批准确定的贡献（NDC），假设所有来自生物质的电力都可以由甘蔗部门生产。第二种是考虑到糖能源部门在巴西电力矩阵中所占份额更高的情景，称为 BIO 情景。使用自下而上的方法并假设当前可用的技术，对每个方案所需的投资进行了评估。结果表明，BIO 情景可以比 BASE 情景产生 55 TWh 的剩余电力，提高糖能源部门在电力矩阵中的份额，达到每年近 130 TWh，需要额外投资比 BASE 情景高 39%。由于甘蔗剩余电力可以替代天然气发电厂的电力，BIO 情景可以减少 18.4 MtCO 的排放₂eq 与 BASE 场景相比。通过用于评估社会经济影响的投入产出模型，观察到 BIO 情景可以增加 919 000 个工作岗位，并对 288 亿美元的国内生产总值 (GDP) 产生积极影响，相比之下在 BASE 情景下，增加 83 000 个工作岗位，对 GDP 的贡献提高 12.5%。与 BASE 情景相比，BIO 情景中的总产出高出 8.6%。所有这些分析都是针对该国的三个选定地区进行的：传统地区，包括圣保罗州和巴拉那州；扩张区域，包括戈亚斯州、米纳斯吉拉斯州、马托格罗索州和南马托格罗索州；和巴西其他地区。在巴西其他地区的总产出中观察到溢出效应，表明与在其他地区进行的投资相比，对该地区的投资的影响成比例地更高。巴西其他地区在 GDP、创造的就业机会和总产出的间接影响中所占的份额也更高。这项研究的最终结果显示了糖能源部门在促进发电方面的潜力，这有助于减少温室气体 (GHG) 排放，并保持可再生能源在巴西电力矩阵中的份额并增加能源安全和发电更靠近最大的消费中心，减轻国家互联系统 (SIN) 子系统之间电力传输的挑战。