The present study tests if the spatial variability in endogenous and exogenous components of population growth (natural balance and migration balance) reflects the transition from a mono-centric (compact-dense) settlement structure towards a more polycentric agglomeration based on sub-centers. The spatial distribution of population growth rates across municipal units in Barcelona province (Spain) was analyzed over a sufficiently long time period (44 years between 1975 and 2018, partitioned into four intervals of equal length, 1975–1985, 1986–1996, 1997–2007, 2008–2018) at five concentric rings around Barcelona. Natural balance and migration rates were investigated vis à vis selected territorial indicators using descriptive, inferential and multivariate statistical techniques. The contribution of natural balance to overall population growth decreased with the distance from downtown Barcelona; the contribution of migration balance increased with population density. In the first period (1975–1985), natural balance was higher in peri-urban locations and sub-central municipalities. In the following two periods (1986–1996 and 1997–2007), the contribution of natural balance to total population growth decreased, showing a greater spatial concordance with migration rate. In the last period (2008–2018), natural population growth decelerated further, and the impact of migration balance was extremely variable across space. The empirical results of this study shed light on the (apparent or latent) demographic processes underlying Barcelona's long-term growth, and provide evidence in favor of a relationship between polycentric development and the shift from natural growth to immigration as the main engine of urban expansion in recent times.

本研究检验了人口增长的内源性和外源性成分（自然平衡和迁移平衡）的空间变异性是否反映了从单中心（紧凑密集）聚居结构向基于次中心的多中心集聚的转变。在足够长的时间段内（1975 年至 2018 年之间的 44 年，分为四个等长的区间，1975-1985、1986-1996、1997-），分析了巴塞罗那省（西班牙）各市级单位人口增长率的空间分布2007, 2008–2018）在巴塞罗那周围的五个同心环。自然平衡和迁移率进行了调查相一相使用描述性、推理性和多变量统计技术选定的地域指标。自然平衡对总体人口增长的贡献随着距巴塞罗那市中心的距离而降低；迁移平衡的贡献随着人口密度的增加而增加。在第一阶段（1975-1985 年），城市周边地区和次中心城市的自然平衡更高。在随后的两个时期（1986-1996 年和 1997-2007 年），自然平衡对总人口增长的贡献下降，与迁移率的空间一致性更大。在上一个时期（2008-2018 年），人口自然增长进一步减速，移民平衡的影响在跨空间变化极大。