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Predicting the maximum sunspot number and the associated geomagnetic activity indices a a $aa$ and A p $Ap$ for solar cycle 25
Astrophysics and Space Science ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s10509-021-03953-3
P. R. Singh , A. I. Saad Farid , A. K. Singh , T. K. Pant , Ayman A. Aly

Over the last three solar cycles, the precursor method has proven to be a very reliable technique for forecasting ensuing solar cycles. In the present work, we have used the geomagnetic activity indices: \(aa\) and \(Ap\) measured during the last 4 years of the descending phase of solar activity cycles as precursors for predicting the strength of the next solar cycle 25. From the indices \(aa\) and \(Ap\), we estimate the maximum sunspot number (SSN) amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle \(i\).\(e\)., solar activity cycle 25 to be \(119.42\pm 28.41\) and \(113.70\pm 23.51\), respectively. This suggests that the activity of the next solar cycle 25 is likely to be comparable to that of cycle 24. The results further suggest that this forecast of the maximum SSN will be associated with the values \(aa = 16.67 \pm 3.11\) nT and \(Ap= 8.78 \pm 2.34\) nT. This indicates that the maximum solar cycle 25 is expected to be accompanied by higher geomagnetic activity levels than in cycle 24, but less than those in the previous cycles 22 and 23. Predicting the level of solar activity is of particular interest because it enhances understanding on establishing a consistent picture of the solar dynamo process and changes in the magnetic field therein; and also helps us in taking decisions having implications in our operational technological capability in space.



中文翻译:

预测太阳活动周期 25 的最大太阳黑子数和相关的地磁活动指数 aa $aa$ 和 A p $Ap$

在过去的三个太阳周期中,前体方法已被证明是一种非常可靠的预测后续太阳周期的技术。在目前的工作中,我们使用了在太阳活动周期下降阶段的最后 4 年测量的地磁活动指数:\(aa\)\(Ap\)作为预测下一个太阳周期强度的前兆 25 . 从指数\(aa\)\(Ap\),我们估计即将到来的太阳周期\(i\)的最大太阳黑子数(SSN)幅度。\(e\) ., 太阳活动周期 25 为\(119.42\pm 28.41\)\(113.70\pm 23.51\), 分别。这表明下一个太阳周期 25 的活动可能与周期 24 的活动相当。结果进一步表明,最大 SSN 的这种预测将与值\(aa = 16.67 \pm 3.11\)  nT 相关联和\(Ap= 8.78 \pm 2.34\)  nT。这表明,预计最大太阳活动周期 25 伴随着比周期 24 更高的地磁活动水平,但低于之前的周期 22 和 23。预测太阳活动水平特别令人感兴趣,因为它增强了对建立太阳发电机过程及其磁场变化的一致图像;并帮助我们做出对我们在太空中的操作技术能力有影响的决定。

更新日期:2021-05-28
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