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Evaluation of CMIP6 Global Climate Models for Simulating Land Surface Energy and Water Fluxes During 1979–2014
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ( IF 4.327 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-27 , DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002515
Jianduo Li, Chiyuan Miao, Wei Wei, Guo Zhang, Lijuan Hua, Yueli Chen, Xiaoxiao Wang

This study examined the overall performance of the climate models in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the key energy and water fluxes over land. For this purpose, this study selected multiple land flux products as reference data sets and assessed the global spatial means, patterns, trends, seasonal cycles, and regional mean estimates of the sensible heat (SH), latent heat (LH), net radiation (RN), runoff (RF), and precipitation (PR) simulated by 32 CMIP6 models in recent decades. The global (Antarctica, Greenland, and hot deserts are not included) mean SH, LH, RN, RF, and PR simulated by the CMIP6 models are 37.55 ± 4.81 W m−2, 49.88 ± 5.31 W m−2, 89.10 ± 4.45 W m−2, 351.31 ± 95.28 mm yr−1, and 948.35 ± 88.77 mm yr−1, respectively. The ensemble median of CMIP6 simulations (CMIP6-MED) can provide robust estimates of global and regional land fluxes, which are within the ranges given by the reference data sets, and highly consistent spatiotemporal patterns of these fluxes. The comparison of CMIP6-MED with the first preferred reference data sets shows that CMIP6-MED generally overestimates the water and energy fluxes over land, except for the simulated RF and PR in the Amazon region. The most disagreements between CMIP6-MED and the reference data sets occur in South America (particularly the Amazon region) and the Tibetan Plateau. Finally, the sources of model biases are discussed. It is suggested that current land flux products should be widely used to optimize the structures and parameters of climate models in future work.

中文翻译:

用于模拟 1979-2014 年地表能量和水通量的 CMIP6 全球气候模型评估

本研究检查了耦合模式比对项目 (CMIP6) 第 6 阶段中气候模式在模拟陆地上的关键能量和水通量方面的整体性能。为此,本研究选择了多个土地通量产品作为参考数据集,并评估了感热(SH)、潜热(LH)、净辐射的全球空间均值、格局、趋势、季节周期和区域均值估计值( RN)、径流 (RF) 和降水 (PR) 是近几十年来由 32 个 CMIP6 模型模拟的。CMIP6 模型模拟的全球(不包括南极、格陵兰和热沙漠)平均 SH、LH、RN、RF 和 PR 分别为 37.55 ± 4.81 W m -2、49.88 ± 5.31 W m -2、89.10 ± 4.45 W m -2 , 351.31 ± 95.28 mm yr -1, 和 948.35 ± 88.77 mm yr -1, 分别。CMIP6 模拟的集合中值 (CMIP6-MED) 可以提供对全球和区域土地通量的可靠估计,这些估计值在参考数据集给出的范围内,以及这些通量的高度一致的时空模式。CMIP6-MED 与第一首选参考数据集的比较表明,CMIP6-MED 通常高估了陆地上的水和能量通量,除了亚马逊地区的模拟 RF 和 PR。CMIP6-MED 与参考数据集之间的最大分歧发生在南美洲(尤其是亚马逊地区)和青藏高原。最后,讨论了模型偏差的来源。建议在未来的工作中,应广泛使用当前的土地通量产品来优化气候模型的结构和参数。
更新日期:2021-06-10
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