Purpose

Salmonella is one of the main causes of gastroenteritis, and its incidence may be affected by meteorological variables. This is the first study about the effect of climatic factors on salmonella incidence in Kermanshah, Iran.

Methods

Data about salmonellosis cases in Kermanshah were inquired from Center for Communicable Disease Control, at the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, for the 2008 to 2018 time-frame. Meteorological variables including maximum, minimum and mean of temperature and humidity, sunshine hours and rainfall were inquired for the same time frame. Negative binomial generalized linear models (GLM) were used to assess the effect of meteorological variables on the weekly incidence of salmonellosis.

Results

During the years under study, 569 confirmed cases were registered in Kermanshah province. Study results showed a 3 % increase in salmonellosis incidence, after 1 % increase in minimum humidity in the week before (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.03; 95 % confidence interval (CI):1.02–1.05) and also a 4 % increase in incidence for 1 °C increase in mean temperature in the same week (IRR: 1.04; 95 % CI:1.02–1.06).

Conclusions

Increase in minimum humidity and mean temperature may have a role in increasing the incidence of salmonellosis in Iran.

中文翻译：

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气象变量对伊朗西部克尔曼沙赫沙门氏菌病发病率的影响：具有负二项式方法的广义线性模型

目的

沙门氏菌是肠胃炎的主要原因之一，其发病率可能受气象变量的影响。这是关于气候因素对伊朗克尔曼沙赫沙门氏菌发病率影响的第一项研究。

方法

2008 年至 2018 年期间，伊朗卫生和医学教育部传染病控制中心询问了克尔曼沙阿沙门氏菌病病例的数据。查询了同一时间范围内的气象变量，包括温度和湿度的最大值、最小值和平均值、日照时数和降雨量。负二项式广义线性模型 (GLM) 用于评估气象变量对沙门氏菌病每周发病率的影响。

结果

在研究期间，克尔曼沙阿省登记了 569 例确诊病例。研究结果显示，在前一周最低湿度增加 1% 之后，沙门氏菌病发病率增加了 3%（发病率比 (IRR)：1.03；95% 置信区间 (CI)：1.02–1.05），并且增加了 4%同一周平均温度升高 1 °C 的发生率（IRR：1.04；95 % CI：1.02–1.06）。

结论

最低湿度和平均温度的增加可能会增加伊朗沙门氏菌病的发病率。