The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (∼2.4 million people) and Managua (∼1.4 million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from critical analysis of the literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic vent opening maps can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps.

中文翻译：

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San Salvador 火山复合体（萨尔瓦多）和 Nejapa-Chiltepe 火山复合体（尼加拉瓜）中小尺度火山碎屑密度流的专题喷口开启概率图和危险评估

圣萨尔瓦多火山复合体（萨尔瓦多）和内贾帕-奇尔特佩火山复合体（尼加拉瓜）的特点是喷发方式和喷口位置的显着变化。人口稠密的城市是建立在他们和他们的环境，包括圣萨尔瓦多（大都市区~2.4 万人次）和马那瓜（〜1.4 分别万人）。在这项研究中，我们提出了这些火山复合体的新型喷口开口概率图，这些图基于依赖于核密度估计器的多模型方法。特别是，我们提出了主题排气口图，即我们分别考虑不同的危险现象，包括熔岩排放、小尺度火山碎屑密度流、弹道抛射物和低强度火山碎屑沉降。我们的火山学数据集包括：(1) 过去喷口的位置，(2) 主要断层结构的映射，以及 (3) 过去事件的喷发样式，通过对文献的批判性分析获得和/或从火山沉积物中推断出来远程和实地观察到的形态特征。为了说明在构建喷口开口图时考虑预期喷发类型的影响，我们重点分析了源自潜水岩浆活动或低强度岩浆火山活动的小尺度火山碎屑密度流。对于这些现象的数值模拟，我们通过使用程序 ECMapProb 采用了最近开发的分支能量锥模型。我们的结果表明，主题通风口开口地图的实施可以产生与传统的非主题地图估计的危险水平显着不同的危险水平。