ABSTRACT

Mass public shootings have generated significant levels of fear in the recent years, with many observers criticizing the media for fostering a moral panic, if not an actual rise in the frequency of such attacks. Scholarly research suggests that the media can potentially impact the prevalence of mass shootings in two respects: (i) some individuals may be inspired to mimic the actions of highly publicized offenders; and (ii) a more general contagion process may manifest as a temporary increase in the likelihood of shootings associated with a triggering event. In this study of mass shootings since 2000, we focus on short-term contagion, rather than imitation that can traverse years. Specifically, after highlighting the sequencing of news coverage prior and subsequent to mass shootings, we apply multivariate point process models to disentangle the correlated incidence of mass public shootings and news coverage of such events. The findings suggest that mass public shootings have a strong effect on the level of news reporting, but that news reporting on the topic has little impact, at least in the relative short-term, on the subsequent prevalence of mass shootings. Finally, the results appear to rule out the presence of strong self-excitation of mass shootings, placing clear limits on generalized short-term contagion effects. Supplementary files for this article are available online.

摘要

近年来，大规模公开枪击事件引起了人们极大的恐惧，许多观察家批评媒体煽动道德恐慌，即使不是此类袭击频率的实际上升。学术研究表明，媒体可能会在两个方面影响大规模枪击事件的流行：(i) 一些人可能会受到启发，模仿大肆宣传的犯罪者的行为；(ii) 更普遍的传染过程可能表现为与触发事件相关的枪击可能性的暂时增加。在这项对 2000 年以来大规模枪击事件的研究中，我们关注的是短期传染，而不是可以跨越数年的模仿。具体来说，在强调了大规模枪击事件前后的新闻报道顺序之后，我们应用多变量点过程模型来解开大规模公共枪击事件的相关发生率和此类事件的新闻报道。研究结果表明，大规模公开枪击事件对新闻报道的水平有很大影响，但关于该主题的新闻报道对随后大规模枪击事件的流行几乎没有影响，至少在相对短期内是如此。最后，结果似乎排除了大规模枪击事件的强烈自激的存在，明确限制了广义的短期传染效应。本文的补充文件可在线获取。至少在相对短期内，对于随后大规模枪击事件的流行。最后，结果似乎排除了大规模枪击事件的强烈自激的存在，明确限制了广义的短期传染效应。本文的补充文件可在线获取。至少在相对短期内，对于随后大规模枪击事件的流行。最后，结果似乎排除了大规模枪击事件的强烈自激的存在，明确限制了广义的短期传染效应。本文的补充文件可在线获取。