ABSTRACT

A pandemic is defined as an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people. Pandemics have occurred throughout human history and appear to be increasing because of rising emergence of viral diseases from animals (zoonoses). The risk of a pandemic arises from the combined effects of the Spark Risk (e.g. bushmeat hunting) and the Spread Risk (e.g. mode of transmission and population susceptibility). Pandemics have health, economic, gender, social and political impacts. Building pandemic preparedness is complex and requires considerable coordination. In the context of Covid-19, modelling of transmission has been central to many government’s response including introduction of lockdown and physical distancing. Developing vaccines for novel pathogens is not simple or straightforward and community mitigation measures are essential. There are a number of lessons which have been learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic including acting quickly, extensive testing, digital surveillance, public trust in government and leaders and cooperation between nations.

摘要

大流行被定义为在世界范围内或在非常广泛的地区发生、跨越国际边界并通常影响大量人的流行病。大流行在整个人类历史上都发生过，并且由于动物病毒性疾病（人畜共患病）的出现不断增加，而且似乎还在增加。大流行的风险来自火花风险（例如丛林肉狩猎）和传播风险（例如传播方式和人口易感性）的综合影响。流行病具有健康、经济、性别、社会和政治影响。建立大流行准备工作很复杂，需要大量协调。在 Covid-19 的背景下，传输建模一直是许多政府应对措施的核心，包括引入锁定和物理距离。为新型病原体开发疫苗并不简单或直接，社区缓解措施至关重要。从 Covid-19 大流行中吸取了许多教训，包括迅速行动、广泛测试、数字监控、公众对政府和领导人的信任以及国家间的合作。