ABSTRACT

How does the United States develop plans to prevent, prepare for, and/or mitigate disasters? I first discuss planning for the possible: preparedness programs to deal with terror attacks and environmental disasters. I then consider planning for the impossible, or at least, planning for a disaster beyond history: nuclear war. I ask how military planners avoid focusing on the civilizational consequences of the verything they are planning. My answers include two well-known responses: the belief that war plans and capabilities maintain deterrence, and that destroying population is not an objective. I add three additional explanations. Refusing an assignment can be costly for a career. More important, planners focus on solving complex and abstract mathematical problems; this distances them from dwelling on the human consequences. At the same time, planners’ jokes demonstrate that they understand the catastrophic consequences were the war plans they develop to be implemented.

摘要

美国如何制定预防、准备和/或减轻灾害的计划？我首先讨论可能的计划：应对恐怖袭击和环境灾难的准备计划。然后我会考虑为不可能的事情做计划，或者至少是为一场超越历史的灾难做计划：核战争。我问军事规划者如何避免将注意力集中在他们正在规划的事物的文明后果上。我的回答包括两个众所周知的回应：相信战争计划和能力可以保持威慑，以及摧毁人口不是目标。我添加了三个额外的解释。拒绝一项任务对职业生涯来说可能是代价高昂的。更重要的是，规划者专注于解决复杂抽象的数学问题；这使他们远离关注人类后果。同时，