Uncertainty is prevalent in the creep resistance of alloys, where at elevated temperature and low pressure, rupture can range across logarithmic decades. In this study, a probabilistic continuum-damage-mechanics (CDM)-based model is derived to capture the uncertainty of creep resistance. To meet this objective, creep data for alloy 304 Stainless Steel is gathered. A constitutive model, “Sinh”, is calibrated deterministically to determine the statistical variability of the material properties. Three sources of uncertainty are injected into the model: test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage, and material properties. Probabilistic simulations are carried out by (a) calibrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each source of uncertainty (b) randomly sampling the pdfs using Monte Carlo methods and (c) executing simulations to replicate the uncertain creep behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative effect of each source of uncertainty. In full probabilistic simulations, the cumulative uncertainty of creep behavior is evaluated. The probabilistic model accurately predicts the creep deformation and rupture of the available experiments. The probabilistic model is validated for interpolation but lacks extrapolation ability. Several future works are proposed to further improve the model.

合金的抗蠕变性普遍存在不确定性，在高温和低压下，断裂的范围可以跨越对数几十年。在这项研究中，导出了一个基于概率连续介质损伤力学 (CDM) 的模型来捕捉蠕变阻力的不确定性。为了实现这一目标，我们收集了合金 304 不锈钢的蠕变数据。本构模型“Sinh”经过确定性校准以确定材料属性的统计可变性。三个不确定性来源被注入模型：测试条件（应力和温度）、初始损伤和材料特性。概率模拟通过 (a) 为每个不确定性来源校准概率分布函数 (pdf) (b) 使用蒙特卡罗方法随机采样 pdf 和 (c) 执行模拟以复制不确定的蠕变行为来进行。执行敏感性分析以评估每个不确定性来源的相对影响。在完全概率模拟中，评估蠕变行为的累积不确定性。概率模型准确地预测了可用实验的蠕变变形和破裂。概率模型已针对插值进行了验证，但缺乏外推能力。提出了一些未来的工作来进一步改进模型。在完全概率模拟中，评估蠕变行为的累积不确定性。概率模型准确地预测了可用实验的蠕变变形和破裂。概率模型已针对插值进行了验证，但缺乏外推能力。提出了一些未来的工作来进一步改进模型。在完全概率模拟中，评估蠕变行为的累积不确定性。概率模型准确地预测了可用实验的蠕变变形和破裂。概率模型已针对插值进行了验证，但缺乏外推能力。提出了一些未来的工作来进一步改进模型。