Current discussions of the social phenomenon of “vaccine hesitancy” with regard to Covid-19 provide an opportunity to use hesitancy as a means to shift thinking about untimely and delayed responses to forecasts of hydrometeorological hazards. Hesitancy, that is, provides a paradigm through which such regrettably delayed responses to hydromet hazards might be better understood and effectively addressed. Without exaggeration, just about every hydromet event provides an example of how hesitancy hinders individual, community, and national government risk-reducing preventive and mitigative responses to forecasts of foreseeable, relatively near-term climate, water, or weather hazards. Reasons for such hesitancy (for vaccine and forecast use alike) include—among others—lack of trust in the science, lack of confidence in government, and persistent concern about the uncertainties that surround forecasting—both meteorological and public health. As such, a better understanding of the causes that lead to individual and group hesitancy can better inform hydromet forecasters and affected communities about ways in which beneficial actions in response to timely forecasts are often delayed. This better understanding will facilitate, where necessary, targeted interventions to enhance the societal value of forecasting by reducing this long-observed challenge of “forecast hesitancy.” First, this article focuses on incidents of “vaccine hesitancy” that, for various reasons, people around the world are even now experiencing with regard to several now-available, and confirmed efficacious, Covid-19 vaccines. Reports of such incidents of indecisiveness first increased dramatically over the first few months of 2021, despite the strong scientific confidence that vaccination would significantly lower personal risk of contracting as well as spreading the virus. After, the notion of forecast hesitancy with regard to hydrometeorological hazards is discussed.

It’s not what you say, it’s what people hear.

-Frank Luntz (2007)

当前有关Covid-19的“疫苗犹豫”社会现象的讨论提供了一个机会，可以利用犹豫来转变对水文气象危害预测的不及时和延迟响应的思考。犹豫，即提供了一种范式，通过它可以更好地理解和有效解决对水位威胁的这种令人遗憾的延迟响应。毫不夸张地说，几乎每一个水文气象事件都提供了一个例子，说明犹豫如何阻碍个人，社区和国家政府降低对可预见的，相对近期的气候，水或天气危害的预测的预防和缓解风险。犹豫不决的原因（对于疫苗和预测用途都如此）包括：对科学的不信任，对政府的不信任，以及对围绕预报的不确定性（包括气象和公共卫生）的持续关注。因此，更好地了解导致个人和团体犹豫的原因，可以更好地告知水文气象预报员和受影响的社区有关及时响应预报的有益行动通常被延迟的方式。更好的理解将在必要时促进有针对性的干预措施，以通过减少长期以来观察到的“预测犹豫”挑战来提高预测的社会价值。首先，本文着重于“疫苗犹豫”事件，由于种种原因，世界各地的人们甚至都在经历几种现在可用且已证实有效的Covid-19疫苗。尽管科学界坚信疫苗接种将大大降低个人感染和传播病毒的风险，但在2021年的头几个月中，此类优柔寡断事件的报道首次大幅度增加。之后，讨论了关于水文气象危害的预测犹豫的概念。

这不是您所说的，而是人们听到的。

弗兰克·伦茨（Frank Luntz）（2007）